February 12, 2026
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE
— Midterm elections often act as a brake on presidential power, but extreme partisan polarization calls into question whether the 2026 midterm will serve its usual role.
— However, despite growing partisan polarization, large partisan swings in the House and Senate still appear to be possible.
— This is truer of the House than the Senate, though, as nationalization has helped Republicans realize an advantage on the overall Senate map.
— States with Senate seats up for election in 2026, in aggregate, vote several points to the right of the nation, so even a substantial Democratic lead in generic ballot polling would not necessarily translate to a Democratic Senate majority, even though it very likely would in the House.