If Democrats Get a 2006-Style Senate Result, It May be Because Trump Has a 2006-Style Approval Rating By Kyle Kondik
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE
— While the 2018 midterm was generally a “blue wave,” Republicans still held the Senate. If Democrats want to flip the Senate, they’ll need a year that’s more like 2006.
— The Senate map was in some ways completely different heading into the 2006 election as opposed to the Senate map we have now, and it was less tied to presidential partisanship.
— However, there are some commonalities between the top Democratic Senate targets in 2006 and in 2026, although the comparisons require some stretching.
— But more important is President Trump’s approval rating, which probably needs to be more like George W. Bush’s in 2006 than Trump’s own approval in 2018 in order for Democrats to flip the Senate.