Politics

What They Told Us: Reviewing Last Week’s Key Polls -- Week Ending March 31, 2012

If it’s in the news, it’s in our polls.

The U.S. Supreme Court this past week held three days of hearings on the constitutionality of President Obama’s health care law, in particular the requirement that every American obtain health insurance. Most voters (63%) continue to believe the federal government does not have the authority to force people to buy health insurance, and 54% expect the Supreme Court to overturn the law.

But as Scott Rasmussen explains in his new syndicated column, the health care law is doomed even if it survives the scrutiny of the high court. Detailing three ways the law could meet its end, Scott writes, “Nothing the court decides will keep the law alive for more than a brief period of time.”

58% Oppose Reducing Size of U.S. Nuclear Arsenal

With questions swirling about President Obama’s plans for the U.S. nuclear weapons arsenal, Americans still believe overwhelmingly that those weapons are critical to the nation’s security. Most continue to oppose reducing the size of that arsenal.

A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that 80% of American Adults rate America’s nuclear weapons arsenal as at least somewhat important to U.S. national security. That includes 57% who think it’s Very Important, up six points from 51% when the question was first asked in August 2010. Only 14% feel the nuclear arsenal is not very or Not At All Important to this nation’s security. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

The survey of 1,000 American Adults was conducted on March 26-27, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Wisconsin GOP: Romney 44%, Santorum 34%, Gingrich 7%, Paul 7%

The numbers have moved little over the past week with Mitt Romney still holding a double-digit lead over Rick Santorum in the closing days of the Wisconsin Republican Primary race.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Republican Primary Voters in Wisconsin shows Romney with 44% support to Santorum’s 34%. A week ago in Wisconsin, it was Romney 46% and Santorum 33%.

Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich and Texas Congressman Ron Paul both pick up seven percent (7%) of the vote from Badger State Republicans, virtually unchanged from the previous survey. Two percent (2%) like some other candidate in the race, and six percent (6%) are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

(Want a free daily e-mail update? If it's in the news, it's in our polls). Rasmussen Reports updates are also available on Twitter or Facebook.

This Wisconsin survey of 717 Likely Republican Primary Voters was conducted on March 29, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Maryland GOP: Romney 45%, Santorum 28%, Gingrich 12%, Paul 7%

Republican front-runner Mitt Romney is well ahead of his chief rival Rick Santorum in Maryland with that state’s primary less than a week away.

A new Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Republican Primary Voters in Maryland shows Romney with 45% support to Santorum’s 28%. Twelve percent (12%) favor former House Speaker Newt Gingrich, while Texas Congressman Ron Paul earns seven percent (7%) of the vote. Two percent (2%) like another candidate in the race, and six percent (6%) are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

This Maryland survey of 750 Likely Republican Primary Voters was conducted on March 28, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

54% Expect U.S. Supreme Court To Overturn Health Care Law

Most voters continue to believe the federal government does not have the authority to force people to buy health insurance, and they expect the U.S. Supreme Court to overturn President Obama’s health care law that includes that mandate.

The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that 50% of Likely U.S. Voters would like to see the Supreme Court overturn the health care law, and 54% predict that that’s what the court will do.

Thirty-seven percent (37%) would like to see the high court uphold the legality of the law, but just 26% think that’s what the court will ultimately decide. Thirteen percent (13%) are undecided about the law, and 21% aren’t sure what the Supreme Court will do about it. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

(Want a free daily e-mail update? If it's in the news, it's in our polls).  Rasmussen Reports updates are also available on Twitter or Facebook.

The survey of 1,000 Likely U.S. Voters was conducted on March 27-28, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Voters Less Confident Than Ever That Social Security Will Pay All Promised Benefits

Voters’ confidence in the Social Security system has fallen over the last few years, but now fewer voters than ever believe they will be paid all they are owed in their lifetime.

A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that only 35% of Likely U.S. Voters are confident that Social Security will pay all promised benefits over their lifetime, including just 13% who are Very Confident. This is down from 44% last month and down from the previous low of 39% in December 2008. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

The national survey of 1,000 Likely Voters was conducted on March 23-24, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology. 

48% Oppose Requiring Women to View Ultrasounds Before Abortions

Voters nationwide are closely divided over laws being proposed in a growing number of states that require pregnant women to view their fetus via ultrasound before they can get an abortion. But voters overwhelmingly oppose allowing government to mandate medical procedures.

The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey of Likely Voters shows that 41% favor proposed laws that would require pregnant women to view an ultrasound picture before having an abortion. Forty-eight percent (48%) oppose such a law, while 11% are not sure. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

(Want a free daily e-mail update? If it's in the news, it's in our polls).  Rasmussen Reports updates are also available on Twitter or Facebook.

The survey of 1,000 Likely Voters was conducted on March 25-26, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

46% of GOP Voters Still Like Primary Process

As tempers flare and the language gets harsher in the race for the Republican presidential nomination, a plurality (46%) of GOP voters continues to believe the primary process is a good way to select a nominee. But that’s down from 53% in early September before the battle began in earnest. 

Among all voters, the latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that 42% think the current primary process is a good way to pick a party’s nominee. Thirty-three percent (33%) say it’s a bad way to choose a nominee, and 25% more are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

(Want a free daily e-mail update? If it's in the news, it's in our polls). Rasmussen Reports updates are also available on Twitter  or Facebook .  

The national survey of 1,000 Likely Voters was conducted on March 23-24, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC . See methodology.

60% Say Border Control Is Priority in Immigration Reform

Voters continue to support a welcoming immigration policy and still feel strongly that immigration reform should focus on border control.

The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that 60% of Likely Voters think when it comes to immigration reform, gaining control of the border is more important than legalizing the status of undocumented workers who are already in the United States.  Thirty-three percent (33%) feel the opposite is true.  (To see survey question wording, click here.)

(Want a free daily e-mail update? If it's in the news, it's in our polls). Rasmussen Reports updates are also available on Twitter  or Facebook .  

The national survey of 1,000 Likely Voters was conducted on March 19-20, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC . See methodology.

What They Told Us: Reviewing Last Week’s Key Polls - Week Ending March 23, 2012

Friday marked the two-year anniversary of President Obama’s national health care law, and Republicans, unable to push repeal through the Democratic-controlled Senate, are now looking to the U.S. Supreme Court for relief. The high court will hold hearings this coming week on a multi-state challenge of the law’s constitutionality.

Most voters continue to favor repeal of the law as they have consistently since its passage in 2010. Public opinion has been remarkably stable on the law stretching back to late 2009.

Still, with most of the law’s provisions not scheduled to go into effect until 2014, 57% say the law has had no direct impact on their lives so far. Thirteen percent (13%) say they personally have been helped by the law to date, while twice as many (26%) say they have been hurt by it.

Obama Ahead of Romney, Santorum in Core Four States (FL, NC, OH, VA)

President Obama holds modest leads over both Republican front-runners in hypothetical Election 2012 matchups in combined polling of the key swing states Florida, North Carolina, Ohio and Virginia. Obama now picks up 47% of the vote to Romney’s 42% in those states. Six percent (6%) prefer some other candidate, and five percent (5%) are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

The survey of 500 Likely Voters in Florida, Ohio, North Carolina and Virginia was conducted on March 17-22, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Wisconsin GOP: Romney, 46%, Santorum 33%, Paul 8%, Gingrich 7%

Mitt Romney holds a double-digit lead over Rick Santorum in Rasmussen Reports’ first look at the Wisconsin Republican Primary race.

A new statewide telephone survey shows that 46% of Likely Republican Primary Voters in Wisconsin favor Romney, while 33% prefer Santorum. Texas Congressman Ron Paul is a distant third with eight percent (8%) of the vote, closely followed by former House Speaker Newt Gingrich at seven percent (7%). One percent (1%) favors some other candidate, and five percent (5%) are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

This Wisconsin survey of 1,000 Likely Republican Primary Voters was conducted on March 21, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

62% Think Health Law Will Cause Companies To Drop Employee Health Insurance

Most voters still worry that the national health care law will cause some companies to drop employee health care coverage and think it would be bad if those employees were forced into a government insurance plan instead. 

The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey of Likely Voters shows that 62% believe it is at least somewhat likely that the health care law will cause some companies to drop health insurance coverage for their employees, while only 25% don’t see that as likely. These findings include 38% who view this as a Very Likely outcome but just three percent (3%) who see it as Not At All Likely. Another 13% are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

(Want a free daily e-mail update? If it's in the news, it's in our polls).  Rasmussen Reports updates are also available on Twitter or Facebook.

The survey of 1,000 Likely U.S. Voters was conducted on March 19-20, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Virginia: Obama Widens Lead Over Romney, Santorum

President Obama now clears the 50% mark in support against his top two potential Republican challengers in the battleground state of Virginia.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Virginia Voters finds the president leading former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney by nine points - 51% to 42%. It was a six-point race a month ago – Obama 49%, Romney 43%. Four percent (4%) now prefer another candidate in the race, and four percent (4%) more are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

The survey of 500 Likely Voters in Virginia was conducted on March 20, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Louisiana GOP: Santorum 43%, Romney 31%, Gingrich 16%, Paul 5%

Former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum is comfortably ahead in Louisiana with that state’s Republican Primary just two days away.

A new Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely GOP Primary Voters in Louisiana finds Santorum with a 12-point lead over former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney – 43% to 31%. Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich who has pinned his hopes on capturing other Southern states beyond South Carolina and his native Georgia runs a distant third with 16% support. Texas Congressman Ron Paul comes in last with five percent (5%). One percent (1%) prefer some other candidate, and five percent (5%) are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

This Louisiana survey of 750 Likely Republican Primary Voters was conducted on March 21, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

56% Say Federal Government Encourages Illegal Immigration

Most voters continue to believe the policies of the federal government encourage illegal immigration, but fewer voters than ever think it’s a good idea to put the U.S. military along the border to stop the flow of illegals into this country.  

A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that 56% of Likely Voters say the policies and practices of the federal government encourage people to enter the United States illegally.  Twenty-seven percent (27%) disagree, while 17% are not sure.  (To see survey question wording, click here.)

(Want a free daily e-mail update? If it's in the news, it's in our polls).  Rasmussen Reports updates are also available on Twitter or Facebook.  

The survey of 1,000 Likely U.S. Voters was conducted on March 19-20, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Fieldwork for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

57% Haven’t Been Impacted By Health Care Law Yet

While most voters still want to repeal the two-year-old national health care law, the majority also says the law has had no impact on them personally thus far.

Most of the health care law’s provisions won’t go into effect until 2014, and just 13% of Likely U.S. Voters say they personally have been helped by the law to date, according to a new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey. Twice as many (26%) say they have been hurt by the passage of the law. Fifty-seven percent (57%) say the law has had no direct impact on their lives. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

The survey of 1,000 Likely U.S. Voters was conducted on March 19-20, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

22% Say GOP Should Pick Veep Nominee From Remaining Presidential Also-Rans

Romney-Santorum? Romney-Gingrich? Romney-Paul? Not so fast, voters say when asked about a potential Republican ticket for this fall’s election.  Just 22% of Likely U.S. Voters, in fact, believe the eventual Republican nominee should pick one of the other three remaining candidates as his vice presidential running mate. A new Rasmussen Reports national telephones survey finds that 37% of voters don’t think that’s a good idea, but a sizable 41% aren’t sure. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

(Want a free daily e-mail update? If it's in the news, it's in our polls).  Rasmussen Reports updates are also available on Twitter or Facebook.  

The survey of 1,000 Likely Voters was conducted on March 17-18, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Fieldwork for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

64% Say U.S. Society is Fair and Decent

A sizable majority of voters continues to feel that the United States is generally a fair and decent place, but the number who think President Obama disagrees with them is at its highest level since late 2010.

A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that 64% of Likely U.S. Voters agree that American society is generally fair and decent. One-in-four voters (26%) disagrees and says society in this country is unfair and discriminatory. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

The survey of 1,000 Likely Voters was conducted on March 11-12, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Fieldwork for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

74% See China As Bigger Threat Economically Than Militarily

Americans continue to believe in overwhelming numbers that China is an economic threat to the United States. One-in-four still regard the Asian giant as an enemy of this country.

A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that just nine percent (9%) of American Adults view China as a U.S. ally. Twenty-five percent (25%) describe China as an enemy, while 64% rate it somewhere in between the two.  (To see survey question wording, click here.)

(Want a free daily e-mail update? If it's in the news, it's in our polls). Rasmussen Reports updates are also available on Twitter or Facebook.

The survey of 1,000 Adults was conducted on March 14-15, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Fieldwork for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.