As the Republican Party prepares for its convention, a look back at Election 2004 reveals an amazingly stable race for the White House. In fact, the monthly polling totals show virtually no movement in the campaign other than a minor bounce related to the Democratic National Convention.
In February, the month that Senator John Kerry became the Democratic Party frontrunner, President George Bush attracted 46.3% of the vote in Rasmussen Reports polling. Kerry, with 45.2% of the vote, trailed by just over a single percentage point.
Many pundits think Ohio may be the decisive state in the Election 2004 Presidential race. If the race remains close it is certainly one of the four biggest states in play for the Electoral College competition (along with Florida, Michigan, and Pennsylvania).
Initial public reaction to a proposal for reducing the number of American troops in Germany and Korea is very positive.
Fifty-nine percent (59%) of voters favor the plan which would station more American troops in the United States while reducing our presence in nations that dominated the Cold War era. A Rasmussen Reports survey found that 23% oppose the idea.
In his bid to become the next United States Senator from Colorado, Ken Salazar is currently attracting 49% support from voters in his state. A Rasmussen Reports survey of 500 Likely Voters finds that Republican Pete Coors has support from 45% of Colorado voters.
In Washington, the latest Rasmussen Reports survey shows Senator Kerry with 50% of the vote and President Bush with 44%. Four years ago, Bush lost Washington's Electoral College votes to Al Gore by five percentage points.
In Ohio, the latest Rasmussen Reports survey shows
Senator Kerry with 46% of the vote and President Bush with 45%. Just one month ago, Bush held a four-point lead in the state, 46% to 42%. The month before, it was Bush 46% Kerry 44% in our Ohio poll.
In Pennsylvania, the race for the White House is a virtual tie.
The latest Rasmussen Reports survey shows
Senator Kerry with 46% of the vote and President Bush with 45%. Four years ago, Bush lost Pennsylvania's 21 Electoral College votes to Al Gore by five percentage points.
In Michigan, the latest Rasmussen Reports survey shows
Senator Kerry with 50% of the vote and President Bush with 44%. Four years ago, Al Gore defeated Bush to carry Michigan by a 51% to 46% margin.
Last month, Kerry had a two-point lead in Michigan, 46% to 44%. At that time, we considered the state a Toss-Up for our Electoral College projections (we require a five-point lead before moving a state from Toss-Up status).
However, our mid-month update for Premium Members found Kerry ahead by six points. At that time, we moved Michigan to the "Leans Kerry" column. These latest results confirm that Michigan is still leaning slightly in the Democratic direction.
In Oregon, the latest Rasmussen Reports survey shows
Senator Kerry with 47% of the vote and President Bush with 41%. Four years ago, Bush lost Oregon's 7 Electoral College votes to Al Gore by less than one percent of all votes cast.
Rasmussen Reports finds John Kerry with a 7-point lead over George W. Bush among New Mexico voters. Our first Election 2004 survey in the state shows Kerry with 50% of the vote, Bush with 43%, and Libertarian Michael Badnarik with 5%. Ralph Nader is not on the ballot in New Mexico.
In Iowa, the latest Rasmussen Reports polling data shows Senator John Kerry with 48% of the vote and President George W. Bush with 45%. Four years ago, Al Gore narrowly carried Iowa by a 49% to 48% margin.