Generic Congressional Ballot

The Democratic Party continues to lead over Republicans in the battle to control the House of Representatives, but by a slimmer margin than two months ago. 

The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone and online survey finds that if the elections for Congress were held today, 45% of Likely U.S. Voters would vote for the Democratic candidate, while 42% would vote for the Republican. Five percent (5%) say they would vote for some other candidate, while another eight percent (8%) are not sure. (To see survey question wording, click here.) 

The advantage for Democrats has declined three points since January, when they led by six points, 47% to 41%. The position for Republicans is still a net six points worse than before the November 2024 election, when they led by three points (48% to 45%) and won just a razor-thin House majority.

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The survey of 2,222 U.S. Likely Voters was conducted on March 16-19 and 22-23, 2026 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 2 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

The Democrats’ lead is mainly due to their five-point margin among independents. Eighty-five percent (85%) of Democrats would vote for their own party’s candidate in the next congressional elections, compared to 83% of Republicans who would vote for the GOP candidate. Among voters not affiliated with either major party, 39% would vote for Democrats and 34% for Republicans, while 12% say they would vote for third-party congressional candidates and 16% are undecided.

The “gender gap” is a net 11 points, with women voters preferring Democrats by an eight-point margin (47% to 39%) while men favor Republicans by a three-point margin (46% to 43%). Ten percent (10%) of women voters are undecided about which party they support in the midterms.

Forty-two percent (42%) of whites, 62% of black voters, and 44% of Hispanics and other minorities would vote for Democratic congressional candidates, while 46% of whites, 26% of black voters, and 41% of Hispanics and other minorities would vote Republican.

Democrats lead by 16 points (50% to 34%) among voters under 30. Republican support is strongest among voters ages 50 to 64.

Eighty-seven percent (87%) of self-identified liberal voters would vote for Democratic congressional candidates, while 71% of conservatives would vote Republican. Among moderate voters, Democrats lead by a 24-point margin, 52% to 28%.

Forty-eight percent (48%) of private sector workers and 47% of government employees would vote for Democratic congressional candidates, while a plurality of retirees prefer Republicans.

Breaking down the electorate by income categories, support for Democrats is highest among voters in the top bracket – those earning more than $200,000 a year – while Republicans have a slight advantage among those with annual incomes below $30,000.

Among those who voted for Donald Trump in the 2024 presidential election, 81% would vote for Republican congressional candidates, while 86% of Kamala Harris voters prefer Democrats.

Most current and formermembers of the U.S. military support President Donald Trump, and overwhelmingly favor the Veterans’ Bill of Rights Act legislation currently pending in Congress.

More voters continue to believe the Democratic Party cares about people like them than think the same about the GOP.

Additional information from this survey and a full demographic breakdown are available to Platinum Members only.

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