The latest Rasmussen Reports survey of Texas voters finds President George W. Bush leading Senator John F. Kerry 55% to 38%. That lead is very similar to the actual results of Election 2000 when Bush won his home state 59% to 38%.
George W. Bush will be in New York to accept his party's nomination, but he won't be counting on the state's Electoral Votes this November.
The latest Rasmussen Reports survey of New York voters finds Senator John F. Kerry leading President George W. 57% to 34%. The poll's 23-point spread is close to the 25 percentage point victory for Al Gore over Bush in Election 2000.
In Ohio, the latest Rasmussen Reports survey finds President George W. Bush with 46% of the vote to 44% for Senator John F. Kerry. In Election 2000, Bush won Ohio by a margin of 50% to 46% over Al Gore.
Fifty-four percent (54%) of American voters say that they would consider voting for George W. Bush under certain circumstances. A Rasmussen Reports survey of 2,000 Likely Voters finds that 39% will not vote for the President under any circumstances.
As for Senator Kerry, 49% say they would consider voting for him while 39% definitely would not. Selected demographic breakdowns are available for RR Premium Members.
These results come at a time when the candidates have been locked in a dead heat for months. Ninety-one percent (91%) of those who would consider voting for Kerry already plan to vote for him. Just 3% of those who would consider Kerry are currently planning to vote for Bush.
However, just 81% of those who would consider voting for Bush are planning to vote for him at this time. Another 10% of these potential supporters are currently planning to vote for Kerry.
Twelve percent (12%) of America's Likely Voters say that they would consider voting for both George W. Bush and John F. Kerry. At a time when the campaign has been tied for months, these swing voters are vitally important to both campaigns.
Nineteen percent (19%) of Americans would consider voting for Aaron Russo if they knew he would end the War in Iraq and bring our troops home. Russo is a candidate for the Libertarian Party Presidential nomination.
Forty-one percent (41%) of American voters trust John Kerry more than George W. Bush when it comes to controlling government spending. A nearly identical number, 40% trust Bush more.
Fifty-seven percent (57%) of American voters believe that, in political terms, George W. Bush is conservative. Another 28% see the President as moderate.
In the Illinois campaign for the U.S. Senate, Democrat Barack Obama leads Republican Jack Ryan 48% to 40%.
In Illinois, the latest Rasmussen Reports poll finds Senator John F. Kerry with 48% of the vote to 43% for President George W. Bush.
Last Sunday, pollster John Zogby created quite a stir by announcing his view that the election is now Kerry's to lose. John is a good pollster and makes many good points, but I respectfully disagree with him on this one.
President George W. Bush and Senator John F. Kerry are tied in Arkansas. The latest Rasmussen Reports survey in that state found both men earning 45% of the vote.
Senator John F. Kerry holds an eight-point lead over President George W. Bush in Wisconsin. The latest Rasmussen Reports survey in that state found Kerry earning 50% of the vote to Bush's 42%.
Four years ago, Al Gore defeated George W. Bush in Oregon by about 7,000 votes out of more than 1.5 million. The latest Rasmussen Reports survey in Oregon finds that things are just as close today.
In the state of California, a Rasmussen Reports survey finds that Massachusetts Senator John F. Kerry leads President George W. Bush by eleven points, 51% to 40%. That spread matches the 11 point margin of victory earned by Al Gore four years ago.
Many people have written recently with various forms of the same message: "National polls don't matter in the Presidential Race. As we learned four years ago, the only thing that counts is the Electoral College."
Four years ago, George W. Bush won New Hampshire's four Electoral Votes by a single percentage point (48% to 47%). In Election 2004, it may be that close again.
In New Jersey, Senator John F. Kerry leads President George W. Bush 51% to 39%. Four years ago, Bush lost the state by sixteen points to Al Gore, 56% to 40%.
When it comes to issues of national defense and the War on Terror, Garden State voters are evenly divided as to who would do a better job--45% say Bush and another 45% say Kerry. Nationally, Bush has a significant edge on this issue.
New Jersey Governor Jim McGreevey trails Bret Schundler 46% to 39% in the latest Rasmussen Reports poll. Three years ago, in the 2001 election, McGreevey trounced Schundler by 14 percentage points. The New Jersey Governor's race will be held in November 2005.
Sometimes it is important to pull back from the day-to-day numbers and take a look at the history of Presidential Elections. When you compare the parties over the past 100 years or so, it becomes clear that Republicans and Democrats typically win the Presidency in different ways.
