Election 2026: Texas Senate

Democratic state Rep. James Talarico leads by just one point over Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton in the election for a U.S. Senate seat in Texas.

The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone and online survey finds that, if the election were held today, 46% of Likely Texas voters would vote for Talarico, while 45% would vote for Paxton. Four percent (4%) support Libertarian candidate Ted Brown, and five percent (5%) are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.) 

Talarico and Paxton are vying for the seat currently held by Sen. John Cornyn, who lost the Republican primary to Paxton in a May runoff.

Talarico is supported by 87% of Democrats, while 84% of Republicans would vote for Paxton. Among Texas voters not affiliated with either major party, 48% would vote for Talarico and 34% favor Paxton, while nine percent (9%) support Brown and another nine percent (9%) are undecided.

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The survey of 1,128 Ohio Likely Voters was conducted on September 28-29, 2026 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

The “gender gap” in the Texas Senate race is a net 16 points, with women voters favoring Talarico by a nine-point margin, 49% to 41%, while men favor Paxton by an eight-point margin, 50% to 42%.

Thirty-four percent (34%) of whites, 65% of black voters, 58% of Hispanics and 55% of other minorities would vote for Talarico, while Paxton is supported by 59% of whites, 19% of black voters, 29% of Hispanics and 43% of other minorities.

Younger voters lean sharply toward Talarico, who leads among those under 30 by a 33-point margin, 64% to 31%. Paxton leads by 20 points, 58% to 38%, among Texas voters 65 and older.

Eighty-three percent (83%) of Texas voters who identify as Very Liberal support Talarico, while 86% of Very Conservative voters favor Paxton. Among moderate voters, Talarico leads by a 40-point margin, 64% to 24%.

Breaking down the Texas electorate by income categories, Talarico’s largest margin – 49% to 39% – is among voters earning less than $30,000 a year. Paxton leads 48% to 42% among those with annual incomes between $50,000 and $100,000.

Eighty-five percent (85%) of Texans who voted for Kamala Harris in the 2024 presidential election would vote for Talarico, while 75% of Donald Trump voters support Paxton.

Most voters blame either the United States or Israel for the Iran war, and a surprising number would hand over Israel to Palestinian control in exchange for cheaper gasoline.

Some voters would cross party lines in the midterm elections if the opposing party offered a better plan for lowering the cost of living.  

Additional information from this survey and a full demographic breakdown are available to Platinum Members only.

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