Election 2026: New Hampshire Governor

New Hampshire’s Republican Gov. Kelly Ayotte appears poised for reelection with a double-digit lead over Democratic challenger Cinde Warmington. 

The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone and online survey finds that, if the election were held today, 52% of Likely New Hampshire voters would vote for Ayotte, while 42% would vote for Warmington, who formerly served as a member of the Granite State’s executive council. Two percent (2%) would choose independent candidate John Horsley and four percent (4%) are not sure. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

A former state Attorney General who previously served one term in the U.S. Senate before being elected governor two years ago, Ayotte is supported by 90% of Republicans, 27% of Democrats and 41% of voters not affiliated with either major party. Sixty-eight percent (68%) of Democrats would vote for Warmington, as would eight percent (8%) of Republicans and 49% of unaffiliated voters.

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The survey of 970 New Hampshire Likely Voters was conducted on  October 20-23, 2026 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

The “gender gap” is a net 17 points in the New Hampshire governor’s race, as Ayotte leads by 18 points (58% to 40%) among both men, while her lead over Warmington among women voters is 46% to 45%.

Fifty-three percent (53%) of whites, 49% of black voters, 33% of Hispanics and 40% of other minorities would vote for Ayotte, while Warmington is supported by 41% of whites, 43% of black voters, 64% of Hispanics and 51% of other minorities.

Ayotte leads by a 40-point margin, 68% to 28%, among New Hampshire voters in their 30s, while Warmington leads 54% to 41% among those 65 and older.

Ninety-three percent (93%) of self-identifed Very Conservative voters favor Ayotte, while 52% of Very Liberal voters prefer Warmington. Among moderate voters, Warmington leads 51% to 40%.

Among those who voted for Donald Trump in the 2024 presidential election, 84% would vote for Ayotte, while 72% of Kamala Harris voters favor Warmington.

Democrat Rep. Chris Pappas now leads by six points over former Republican Sen. John Sununu in the race to fill the New Hampshire Senate seat vacated by the retirement of Democratic Sen. Jeanne Shaheen.

The Democratic Party now leads Republicans by five points in the battle to control the House of Representatives.

Additional information from this survey and a full demographic breakdown are available to the public as well as to Platinum Members.

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