Texas Senate: Paxton, Talarico Now Tied

Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton is now tied with Democratic state Rep. James Talarico in the battle for a U.S. Senate seat in Texas.

The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone and online survey finds that, if the election were held today, 45% of Likely Texas voters would vote for Paxton, while 45% would vote for Talarico. Five percent (5%) support Libertarian candidate Ted Brown, and five percent (5%) are undecided. In late September, Talarico had a one-point lead.  (To see survey question wording, click here.)

Talarico and Paxton are vying for the seat currently held by Sen. John Cornyn, who lost the Republican primary to Paxton in a May runoff.Paxton is supported by 79% of Republicans, while 90% of Democrats would vote for Talarico.

 Among Texas voters not affiliated with either major party, 45% favor Talarico and 43% would vote for Paxton.

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The survey of 965 Texas Likely Voters was conducted on October 20-21, 2026 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Eighty-five percent (85%) of Texas voters are excited about voting in the midterm elections, including 59% who say they’re Very Excited. Sixty-eight percent (68%) of Democrats, 64% of Republicans and 43% of unaffiliated voters are Very Excited about voting in the midterm elections.

The “gender gap” in the Texas Senate race is a net 18 points, with men favoring Paxton 50% to 41% while women voters prefer Talarico, 49% to 40%. 

Twice as many women voters (6%) as men (3%) are still undecided.Fifty-seven percent (57%) of whites, 26% of black voters, 32% of Hispanics and 36% of other minorities would vote for Paxton, while 36% of whites, 64% of black voters, 53% of Hispanics and 57% of other minorities would vote for Talarico. 

Hispanics are most likely to say they’re Very Excited about voting in the midterms. 

A majority of voters 50 and older support Paxton, while 62% of those ages 40 to 49 favor Talarico. 

Older voters are more excited about their midterm vote. Eight-nine percent (89%) of Very Conservative voters prefer Paxton, while 79% of Very Liberal voters support Talarico. 

4 presidential election would vote for Paxton, while 87% of Kamala Harris voters would vote for Talarico.

The issue of crime is important to voters in this year’s midterm elections, and Democrats now lead the GOP in terms of trust on the issue.

Democrat Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan continues leading Republican Michele Tafoya in the race to fill the Minnesota Senate seat vacated by the retirement of Democratic Sen. Tina Smith.

Additional information from this survey and a full demographic breakdown are available to Platinum Members only.

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