Election 2026: Iowa Senate

Democrat state Rep. Josh Turek maintains a four-point lead over U.S. Rep. Ashley Hinson in the race to fill the Iowa Senate seat vacated by the retirement of Republican Sen. Joni Ernst.

The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone and online survey finds that, if the election were held today, 47% of Likely Iowa voters would vote for Turek, while 43% would vote for Hinson. Three percent (3%) say they would vote for Libertarian candidate Thomas Laehn, and seven percent (7%) are not sure. In early September, Turek led by five points, 45% to 40%.  (To see survey question wording, click here.) 

Turek’s lead is remarkable in a state Donald Trump won by a 13-point margin in 2024.

Turek gets support from 88% of Iowa’s Democratic voters, as well as 14% of Republicans and 52% of voters not affiliated with either major party. Eighty-two percent (82%) of Republicans would vote for Hinson, along with eight percent (8%) of Democrats and 24% of unaffiliated voters. Nineteen percent (19%) of unaffiliated voters are still undecided.

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The survey of 1,048 Iowa Likely Voters was conducted on September 28-30, 2026 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

The “gender gap” in Iowa is a net 10 points. Women voters favor Turek by a nine-point margin (48% to 39%) while Hinson leads by one point (47% to 46%) among men.

Forty-seven percent (47%) of whites, 57% of black voters, and 51% of Hispanics and other minorities would vote for Turek, while 44% of whites, 37% of black voters, 44% of Hispanics and 17% of other minorities would vote for Hinson.

Turek leads by 18 points (52% to 34%) among voters in their 40s, while Hinson’s strongest showing is a 47% to 44% lead among those 65 and older.

Seventy percent (70%) of Iowa voters who identify as Very Liberal would vote for Turek, while Hinson is supported by 88% of Very Conservative voters. Among moderate voters, Turek leads by a 34-point margin, 63% to 29%.

Married voters and those with children at home favor Hinson, but Turek leads by 14 points among unmarried voters and by seven points among those without children at home.

Breaking down the Iowa electorate by income categories, Turek leads by a 20-point margin, 53% to 33%, among voters earning less than $30,000 a year. Hinson’s widest margin is a 50% to 41% lead among those with annual incomes between $50,000 and $100,000. 

Eighty-five percent (85%) of those who voted for Kamala Harris in the 2024 presidential election would vote for Turek, while 73% of Trump voters would vote for Hinson.

Younger voters view Islamic sharia law much more positively than do their elders, most of whom see sharia as a threat to America’s future.

President Trump earned a monthly job approval of 43% in September, unchanged from August. Fifty-five percent (56%) disapproved of his job performance last month, also unchanged from August.

Additional information  from this survey and a full demographic breakdown are available to the public as well as to Platinum Members.

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