Most Decided Their Vote Over A Month Ago, Worry About Voter Fraud

Voting patterns in this year’s presidential election are virtually the same as those in 2016, with most voters making their decision weeks before Election Day. But over a quarter of voters worry their vote won’t be correctly counted.

A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone and online survey finds that 58% of Likely U.S. Voters made up their minds about how they were going to vote in the presidential election more than a month ago. Eighteen percent (18%) decided within the last month. Twenty-two percent (22%) made up their minds within the last week, with nine percent (9%) who did so on Election Day. (To see survey question wording, click here.) 

This is virtually identical to findings just after the Donald Trump/Hillary Clinton contest in 2016. By comparison,70% had made their minds up more than a month out in the 2012 and 2008 presidential contests. 

But 28% of voters are not confident that the votes in their state for this year’s election will be correctly recorded and counted, with 15% who are Not At All Confident. Seventy-one percent (71%) are confident the vote in their state will be correct, but that includes only 47% who are Very Confident.

Just two weeks before this year’s Election Day, 94% said their vote would be correctly recorded and counted, with 73% who said it was Very Likely.

Fifty-nine percent (59%) are now concerned that the increased use of voting by mail will lead to more voter fraud, including 44% who are Very Concerned. That compares to 58% and 36% respectively last April.

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The survey of 1,000 Likely U.S. Voters was conducted November 5 and 8, 2020 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Looking back at the presidential election, Trump voters overwhelmingly say they voted for the president, while a sizable number of Biden supporters admit they were voting against Trump rather than for the former vice president. 

Women (66%) were far more likely than men (49%) to have decided their vote more than a month beforehand. Those under 40 were the most likely to have decided on Election Day.

Democrats were a lot more likely than others to vote early, but Republicans (62%) were slightly more likely than Democrats (58%) and voters not affiliated with either major party (53%) to have decided their vote more than a month out. Eleven percent (11%) of both Republicans and Democrats made up their minds on Election Day, compared to four percent (4%) of unaffiliateds.

Not surprisingly since the TV networks have declared Democrat Joe Biden the winner and President Trump’s campaign is filing legal challenges to the vote in several states, 64% of Democrats are Very Confident the votes in their state will be correctly recorded and counted. Just 34% of Republicans and 40% of unaffiliated voters agree.

Seventy percent (70%) of GOP voters are Very Concerned that the increased use of mail-in voting will lead to more voter fraud. Only 24% of Democrats and 39% of unaffiliateds share that view.

Trump’s job performance was the most important issue for Biden voters, closely followed by the coronavirus. For Trump voters, the economy came first and then how the president did his job.

Just before the election, 41% said the country was headed in the right direction, the highest finding since March when the coronavirus lockdown kicked in. Now, just 36% feel the country is headed the right way. This number ran in the mid- to upper 20s for much of 2016, President Obama's last full year in office.

Additional information from this survey and a full demographic breakdown are available to Platinum Members only.

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