92% of GOP Voters Say Trump Is Likely 2020 Nominee

A former Illinois congressman is now the second candidate to announce he is challenging President Trump for the Republican presidential nomination in 2020, but it’s overwhelmingly Trump all the way for GOP voters.

A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone and online survey finds that 92% of Likely Republican Voters say Trump is likely to be the GOP nominee next year, with 81% who say it’s Very Likely. Only five percent (5%) say it’s not very or Not At All Likely that Trump will be renominated. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

Among all likely voters, 81% see Trump as the likely nominee, including 61% who say it’s Very Likely. Just 12% say it’s not very or Not At All Likely.

As recently as January, 60% of Republicans said their personal views are more like Trump’s than like those of the average GOP member of Congress. Only 21% identified more with the average congressional Republican.

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The survey of 1,000 Likely Voters was conducted on August 26-27, 2019 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Forty-nine percent (49%) of Democrats – but just 29% of all voters – agree with the following statement – “Vote For Donald Trump, and you are a racist.” But Republicans appear less likely to hide their support in the next presidential election.

Men are even more confident than women that Trump will be nominated to run again in 2020. The older the voter, the more strongly they feel Trump is Very Likely to be next year’s nominee.

Seventy-six percent (76%) of self-identified conservatives think Trump is Very Likely to be renominated, compared to 52% of moderates and 53% of liberals.

Among voters who Strongly Approve of the job the president is doing, 92% say his renomination is Very Likely. Just 42% of those who Strongly Disapprove of Trump’s job performance agree.

Forty-five percent (45%) of all voters think Trump governs more like a third-party president than like a traditional Republican. Thirty-five percent (35%) disagree, while 20% are undecided.

Most voters believe Trump cares more about what voters think than what the media thinks. Congress, on the other hand, cares more about the media, voters say.

Forty-six percent (46%) expect Trump to be reelected next year, while 33% think he will be defeated by the eventual Democratic nominee. Only 11% now expect him to be impeached before the end of his first term.

Additional information from this survey and a full demographic breakdown are available to Platinum Members only.

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