Trump Voters Are Likely To Be More Public This Time Around
Friday, August 02, 2019
Republicans appear less likely to hide their support in the next presidential election.
Because of the vitriol aimed at then-candidate Donald Trump by the media – and even some senior Republicans, Rasmussen Reports suspected there might be a hidden Trump vote in the 2016 election cycle. Surveying in August of that year found that a sizable 17% of Likely Republican Voters were less likely to tell others how they intended to vote compared to previous presidential elections. By comparison, only 10% of Democrats were less likely to tell how they planned to vote.
That hidden vote that most pollsters couldn’t find was surely a contributing factor in Trump’s surprise win over Democrat Hillary Clinton in November 2016.
The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone and online survey finds 15% of GOP voters are still less likely to let others know how they intend to vote in next year’s presidential election. Hesitancy among Democrats is up slightly to 12%, but that may be in part because the Democratic presidential race is still unsettled. When Democrats have chosen a nominee, we’ll ask the question again.
But 52% of Republicans are now more likely to say whom they’re going to vote for for president, up six points from 46% in 2016. Democratic candor is unchanged: 52% were more likely to tell in 2016; 51% say the same now.
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The survey of 2,500 Likely Voters was conducted on July 21-25, 2019 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 2 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.
More than 80% of Republicans approve of the job Trump is doing, according to Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll.
Among all Likely Voters, 47% say they are more likely to let others know how they intend to vote compared to previous presidential campaigns. Fifteen percent (15%) are less likely to tell, while 35% feel about the same as they have in past election cycles. These overall findings are virtually unchanged from three years ago.
Twenty-five percent (25%) of voters not affiliated with either major party were less likely to publicly voice their voting plans in August 2016, compared to 17% now.
Men are much more eager than women to say whom they support this time around.
Forty-six percent (46%) of blacks voters say they are more likely to tell others how they intend to vote next year. That compares to 33% in 2016.
Forty-six percent (46%) of all voters think Trump is likely to be reelected in 2020. Thirty-three percent (33%) say he is more likely to be defeated by the Democratic nominee, while just 11% still feel he is likely to be impeached before the end of his first term in office.
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