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Election 2016: Idaho President

Idaho President: Trump Holds Solid Lead

Thursday, October 27, 2016

Unlike in neighboring Utah, Republican-turned-Independent candidate Evan McMullin isn’t making much of an impact on the presidential race in Idaho.

A new Heat Street/Rasmussen Reports telephone and online survey of Likely Idaho Voters finds Republican nominee Donald Trump comfortably ahead with 48% support to Democrat Hillary Clinton’s 29%. McMullin is a distant third with 10%, followed by Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson at six percent (6%). Two percent (2%) like some other candidate in the race, and six percent (6%) are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

Idaho has not supported a Democratic presidential candidate since 1964. Unsuccessful GOP nominee Mitt Romney carried 65% of the vote here in 2012.

Idaho Republicans prefer Trump over McMullin by an overwhelming 72% to 10% margin. Trump also has 13% Democratic support. Clinton has the backing of 77% of Democrats and six percent (6%) of GOP voters.

Among voters not affiliated with either of the major political parties, it’s Trump 36%, Clinton 27%, McMullin 14% and Johnson 13%.

McMullin, a former CIA operative, Goldman Sachs investment banker and senior House Republican staffer, says he is the true conservative in the race. He is on the ballot in 11 states. But McMullin, a Mormon by faith, is expected to do best in Utah and Idaho, the states with by far the largest number of Mormon voters.

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The survey of 750 Likely Voters in Idaho was conducted on October 23-24, 2016 by HeatStreet/Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Trump is still slightly ahead in reliably Republican Utah despite a spirited challenge from McMullin.

Regardless of whom they want to win, 48% of Idaho voters believe Clinton will win the election, while 40% say Trump will win. Twelve percent (12%) are undecided. Forty-four percent (44%) believe Trump was the overall winner of the debates, but 42% think Clinton won. Fourteen percent (14%) are not sure. 

Trump leads Clinton by double-digit margins among both men and women. McMullin earns roughly 10% support from both groups.

The GOP nominee is also ahead in all age groups. His support is highest among older voters as it is nationally.

Among conservative voters, Trump earns 66% of the vote to McMullin’s 15%.

Trump is viewed Very Favorably by 25% of Idaho voters and Very Unfavorably by 38%. Only 11% have a Very Favorable opinion of Clinton, while 59% view her Very Unfavorably.

For McMullin, Very Favorables are nine percent (9%), Very Unfavorables 13%. But 26% of voters in Idaho say they have never heard of him. Fourteen percent (14%) still haven’t heard of Johnson who is seen Very Favorably by just four percent (4%) and Very Unfavorably by 21%.

Forty-one percent (41%) of voters in the state approve of the job President Obama is doing, with 23% who Strongly Approve. Fifty-seven percent (57%) disapprove, including 47% who Strongly Disapprove. The president has a much worse job approval rating in Idaho than he earns nationally.

Both major party candidates are creeping up in the closing weeks of the presidential campaign, according to the latest Rasmussen Reports national White House Watch.

Just 36% of voters nationwide think it’s even somewhat likely that a third-party candidate could win the presidency in the next 10 years, and only 12% say it’s Very Likely.

Additional information from this survey and a full demographic breakdown are available to Platinum Members only.

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