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White House Watch

White House Watch: Clinton Edges Ahead

Monday, November 07, 2016

Rasmussen Reports’ final White House Watch survey shows Democrat Hillary Clinton with a two-point lead over Republican Donald Trump with less than 24 hours to go until Election Day. Among early voters, Clinton has a double-digit lead.

The latest national telephone and online survey of Likely U.S. Voters shows Clinton with 45% support to Trump’s 43%. Libertarian Gary Johnson picks up four percent (4%) of the vote, while Green Party candidate Jill Stein gets two percent (2%). Three percent (3%) still like some other candidate, and four percent (4%) remain undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

On Friday, Trump and Clinton were tied at 44% apiece. The two major party candidates were tied most days last week. This survey has a margin of error of +/- 2.5%.

Among those who say they have already voted, Clinton leads 53% to 37%. Johnson earns three percent (3%) and Stein one percent (1%).

Just 88% of all likely voters say they have made up their minds how they will vote. Among these voters, Trump leads 52% to 43%; Johnson has four percent (4%), Stein one percent (1%). Among those who still could change their minds, it’s Clinton 40%, Trump 36%, Johnson 17% and Stein seven percent (7%).

Rasmussen Reports updates its White House Watch survey daily Monday through Friday at 8:30 am Eastern based on a three-day rolling average of 1,500 Likely U.S. Voters.

(Want a free daily e-mail update? If it's in the news, it's in our polls). Rasmussen Reports updates are also available on Twitter or Facebook.

The survey of 1,500 Likely Voters was conducted on November 2-3 and 6, 2016 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 2.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

The FBI announced yesterday that it is standing by its earlier conclusion not to seek a criminal indictment of Clinton for mishandling classified information after reviewing thousands of newly obtained e-mails that she sent and received on a private e-mail server while secretary of State. Late last week, most voters considered it likely that Clinton broke the law, but they didn’t think she would be punished for it.

Trump has the support of 84% of Republicans and 11% of Democrats. He leads by eight points among voters not affiliated with either major party. Clinton gets 84% of the Democratic vote and 11% of GOP voters.

Johnson wins 10% of the unaffiliated vote but like Stein is in low single digits among voters in the two major parties. Thirteen percent (13%) of unaffiliated voters like some other candidate or are undecided.

Trump has a slight lead among men; Clinton is ahead among women.

Clinton has a sizable lead among those under 40. Older voters still prefer Trump.

Trump remains well ahead among white voters, but Clinton has dramatically larger advantages among blacks and other minority voters.

We’ll tell you at 10:30 this morning which presidential candidate voters think is most likely to win tomorrow.

Most voters consider the allegations of sexual harassment by multiple women against Trump important to their vote, but most also say the charges haven't affected how they will vote.

Voters continue to strongly believe that the media is more interested in controversy than in the issues when it comes to the presidential race. As in previous presidential election cycles, voters expect reporters covering political campaigns to help their favorite candidates, and 52% said in July that they were favoring Clinton. Twenty-seven percent (27%) said they were helping Trump instead.

Seventy percent (70%) of voters who support Clinton in the election say they’d rather vote for President Obama if it was a legal option. Fifty-one percent (51%) of GOP voters still think top Republican leaders don’t want Trump to be president.

Additional information from this survey and a full demographic breakdown are available to Platinum Members only.

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