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Election 2012: Generic Republican 48%, Obama 42%

Tuesday, November 29, 2011

A generic Republican candidate now holds a six-point advantage over President Obama in a hypothetical Election 2012 matchup.  This survey was conducted Nov. 21, 22 and 27.

The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey of Likely U.S. Voters finds the generic Republican earning 48% support to Obama's 42%.  Three percent (3%) prefer some other candidate, and seven percent (7%) are undecided.  (To see survey question wording, click here.) 

Just over a week ago, a generic Republican candidate held just a 46% to 43% edge over the president.  A week prior, Obama and the GOP candidate were essentially tied, with the incumbent slightly ahead 45% to 44%.  That was the first time the president led the generic Republican since early July.  Since weekly tracking began in early May, the Republican has earned 43% to 49% support, while Obama has picked up 40% to 45% of the vote.

In head-to-head matchups with named Republican candidates, however, President Obama leads all the GOP hopefuls.  After running neck-and-neck with former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney since mid-September, Obama now holds a six-point advantage over him.  The president leads Georgia businessman Herman Cain by 10 points and former House Speaker Newt Gingrich by six.

In Florida and Ohio, a generic Republican candidate leads the president at this stage.  The numbers between the president and a generic Republican are close in North Carolina, Michigan, and Pennsylvania.  Obama leads the Republican in California, but his approval rating has fallen below 50% in the reliably Democratic state.

Obama trails Romney in Florida and Missouri.  He is nearly tied with Gingrich in Florida but edges him in Missouri.  Obama leads Cain in both states. 

Rasmussen Reports will provide new data on the generic matchup each Tuesday at 3 pm Eastern until the field of prospective Republican nominees narrows to a few serious contenders.

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The survey of 2,000 Likely Voters was conducted November 21, 22 and 27, 2011 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 2 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.


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