Generic Republican Candidate 45%, Obama 43%

Voters continue to be almost evenly divided when asked if they want to reelect President Obama.

The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that in a hypothetical 2012 presidential matchup, a generic Republican candidate earns support from 45% of Likely U.S. Voters, while the president attracts 43% of the vote.  Three percent (3%) favor some other candidate, and eight percent (8%) are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

This is the reverse of last week when Obama picked up 45% support to the generic Republican's 44%. In weekly surveys since the beginning of May, support for both the president and a generic Republican have remained in the narrow range of 43% to 45%. Rasmussen Reports will provide new data on this generic matchup each week until the field of prospective Republican nominees narrows to a few serious contenders. 

An incumbent who earns support below 50% is generally considered politically vulnerable.  In every matchup tested so far this year against potential GOP challengers, the president’s support has stayed between 42% and 49%. The president’s total job approval ratings are a good indicator of what percentage of the vote he may earn in the 2012 presidential race.  Aside from a brief bounce in support following the killing of Osama bin Laden, Obama’s approval ratings have hovered in the high 40s for the past 18 months.

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The national survey of 3,500 Likely Voters was conducted on May 23-29, 2011 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 2 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.