Obama 45%, Generic Republican 44%

For the third week in a row, voters remain almost evenly divided over whether they want to reelect President Obama or elect a Republican to replace him.

The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that the president earns support from 45% of Likely Voters nationwide, while a generic Republican candidate picks up 44% of the vote.  Four percent (4%) prefer some other candidate. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

Last week, the Republican earned support from 45% of voters, while Obama attracted 43%. The week before that, the president held an equally modest 45% to 43% lead. Rasmussen Reports will provide new data on this generic matchup each week until the field of prospective Republican nominees narrows to a few serious contenders. 

These results are consistent with the fact that the president’s job approval rating has hovered in the high 40s for most of the past 18 months.  “On Election Day in 2012, it is reasonable to assume that the president’s vote total will be close to his job approval,” Scott Rasmussen explains.  “What is impossible to determine at this point is where the president’s job approval will be in the fall of next year.”

An incumbent who earns support below 50% is generally considered politically vulnerable.  In every matchup tested so far this year against potential GOP challengers, the president’s support has stayed between 42% and 49%.

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The survey of 3,500 Likely Voters was conducted on May 16-22, 2011 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 2 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.