Democrat Mark Dayton and Republican Tom Emmer are still in a virtual tie in Minnesota’s gubernatorial contest.
The latest Rasmussen Reports statewide telephone survey of Likely Voters shows Dayton picking up 40% of the vote, while Emmer draws support from 38%. Independence Party candidate Tom Horner remains a distant third with 15%. One percent (1%) prefer a different candidate, and five percent (5%) are still undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)
This race remains a Toss-Up in the Rasmussen Reports Election 2010 Gubernatorial Scorecard.
In the Minnesota governor’s race, Rasmussen Reports has made a decision not to use our traditional leaners model. Normally, that model shows support falling off for a third-party candidate. However, in Minnesota, third-party candidates often defy that trend, and a look at the initial preference data suggests that may be happening this year.
Two weeks ago, with leaners excluded, Emmer earned 36% support to Dayton's 34%, with Horner at 18%. Emmer, a state legislator who has been endorsed by Sarah Palin, has received support from 36% to 42% since May. Dayton, a former U.S. senator, has attracted 34% to 45% of the vote during the same period. Horner’s support has fallen in the range of nine percent (9%) to 18% since May.
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The survey of 750 Likely Voters in Minnesota was conducted on October 6, 2010 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.
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