State Supreme Courts: Retention Elections in PA, an Open Seat in WI, and Much More

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE

— In most cases, state supreme court elections get little attention, but they can have important impacts on policy.

— There will be one state with closely watched state supreme court elections in 2025: Pennsylvania. Then, in 2026, elections are currently scheduled for 31 states, although that number could change depending on retirements or deaths.

— In addition to the 2025 races in Pennsylvania, the 2026 contests likely to attract attention are in Michigan, Montana, North Carolina, Ohio, Wisconsin, and possibly Alabama and Kentucky.

The 2025-2026 state supreme court contests

State supreme court elections are usually overshadowed by presidential, congressional, and gubernatorial elections as well as high-profile ballot measures. But they can have a significant impact on public policy, including on social issues such as abortion and political matters such as redistricting.

Later this year, Pennsylvania voters will weigh in on whether three Democratic justices—the linchpin of the Democrats’ 5-2 court majority in the battleground state—should continue on the court.

Then, in 2026, 31 states are scheduled to hold elections, though this number could rise or fall before November 2026 depending on whether (and when) justices retire or die in office.

Unlike a number of closely watched state supreme court races in recent election cycles, only one of these contests, in Montana, has the potential to flip the ideological balance of a court. But a number of these elections could have an incremental impact on the ideological makeup of a supreme court and could serve as building blocks for future court takeovers in subsequent election cycles.

This is my first assessment of state supreme court elections for the 2025-2026 cycle; it’s something I have done for Sabato’s Crystal Ball during the 2020, 2022, and 2024 cycles, and that I earlier undertook for other publications in 2014, 2016, and 2018.

In addition to the 2025 Pennsylvania elections, some of the most closely watched supreme court races are likely to be in traditional presidential battleground states, including Michigan, North Carolina, and Wisconsin.

Other states with notable contests in 2026 include Montana, Ohio, and possibly Alabama and Kentucky.

As of this writing, Ballotpedia’s indispensable index of state supreme court races lists 62 of 344 state supreme court seats being up for election in 2026. Our research for this article, however, has uncovered a few late-breaking developments that change that number slightly. (Ballotpedia also lists 229 races in 2026 for lower appeals courts, which I will not cover in this article). A shoutout as well to Quinn Yeargain and Daniel Nichanian, who have produced their own useful guide to state supreme courts for Bolts magazine.

Before digging into the state-by-state analysis, it’s important to note that not all supreme court races are conducted using the same format.

The biggest distinction is between conventional elections (in which candidates, either with partisan labels or without, run for a seat on the court) and retention elections (in which voters are asked, in a yes or no question, whether an incumbent justice should remain on the court). In general, incumbent reelection rates are high in state supreme court races, and that’s especially true for retention elections.

Now, for our state-by-state rundown.

Pennsylvania’s 2025 race

On Nov. 4, Pennsylvania voters will decide whether three Democratic justices—Christine Donohue, Kevin Dougherty, and David Wecht—should keep their seats on the court for another 10 years, through a yes-or-no retention election.

Today, the court has a 5-2 Democratic majority, owing to 2015 victories by Donohue, Dougherty, and Wecht. MAGA-aligned activists are pushing for voters to deny new terms for the trio, spurred by anger over the court’s decision during the 2020 election that allowed counties to accept mail ballots postmarked by Election Day but received as long as three days later. This court has also played a key role in congressional redistricting, throwing out a Republican gerrymander prior to 2018 and then also creating the map for the 2020s after the divided state government could not come to an agreement on a map.

There is precedent for Pennsylvania voters denying a judge retention, but such an outcome is rare. In 2005, voters chose not to retain Democratic appellate judge Russell Nigro amid a voter backlash to a legislative pay raise. But that is the only instance of non-retention in Pennsylvania since 1968, when such elections were established.

If voters deny retention for all three justices, the court would not immediately flip conservative. Democratic Gov. Josh Shapiro would be able to appoint a temporary replacement for each rejected justice, subject to confirmation by two-thirds of the GOP-controlled Pennsylvania Senate. Elections for a permanent replacement would be held in 2027—after the 2026 midterms, but before the 2028 presidential election, when legal skirmishes over election administration could become pivotal in hard-fought Pennsylvania.

Another possibility is that the state Senate could block any Shapiro appointments, which would leave the court 2-2 with three vacancies, preventing many cases from being adjudicated for two years.

A key question that will help determine how heated the contest gets is whether big-money players like Pennsylvania-based billionaire Jeff Yass get significantly involved with independent expenditures.

The highest-profile races of 2026

Montana

The one supreme court contest in 2026 that could directly shape a court’s ideological balance is the nonpartisan contest in Montana.

Montana Supreme Court Justice Beth Baker is not seeking reelection in 2026. Determining ideology on the Montana Supreme Court can be tricky, analysts say, but Baker is seen as liberal, although she sometimes serves as a swing vote.

Baker’s departure means that Democrats and liberals have more at risk in the 2026 open-seat contest to succeed her, especially in a state that is solidly red at most levels but where the supreme court has generally had a moderate-to-liberal cast.

Currently, the Montana Supreme Court has three generally conservative justices (Jim Rice, Cory Swanson, and Laurie McKinnon) and four that lean liberal (Jim Shea, Ingrid Gustafson, Katherine Bidegaray, and Baker).

Two district court judges from the same judicial district in northwestern Montana have announced they will seek the seat Baker is giving up.

The more conservative is Dan Wilson, who was elected to his seat in 2016 and unsuccessfully sought a seat on the high court in 2024. The more liberal candidate is Amy Eddy, who was appointed to her seat in 2015 by then-Gov. Steve Bullock (D) and has subsequently retained it. Wilson will benefit from having run before, and from the state’s generally conservative lean. But Eddy is considered photogenic and articulate and will be running in a midterm election in which Democrats, as the party out of the White House, should have an edge nationally.

Earlier this year, leading Republicans tried to change judicial races from nonpartisan to partisan, but despite holding big legislative majorities, a coalition of Democrats and moderate Republicans blocked that effort.

Wisconsin

Wisconsin will host another marquee supreme court race in 2026, following a string of hotly contested races since 2017 in which the court shifted from a 5-2 conservative majority to a 4-3 liberal majority. That evolution has had major consequences on several issues, including legislative redistricting.

While Wisconsin judicial candidates officially run without a party label, their ideological leanings are widely known, and the more liberal candidate won in 2018, 2020, 2023, and 2025 (the only conservative victory in that timeframe was in 2019).

The 2026 race will be to succeed conservative Justice Rebecca Bradley, who announced in August that she would not seek another term. Even before Bradley announced her retirement, liberals had a candidate—Court of Appeals Judge Chris Taylor—who had been gaining fundraising momentum. She previously served in the Assembly as a Democrat and was appointed to the bench by Democratic Gov. Tony Evers in 2020.

On the conservative side, Maria S. Lazar, another judge on the Court of Appeals, is a possible contender though not officially in the race.

Whoever wins the 2026 open-seat race will not immediately change the balance of power on the court; at most, a conservative victory would maintain the current 4-3 liberal majority, while a flip of Bradley’s seat by Taylor would increase the liberal edge to 5-2.

Analysts in the state see Taylor as the favorite, given the string of liberal victories in supreme court races in recent years and the likelihood of a strong environment for the nonpresidential party during midterm elections.

North Carolina

North Carolina’s supreme court has been a perennial battleground in a closely divided state. It currently has a 5-2 Republican majority, a sharp reversal from the 6-1 edge held by Democrats prior to the 2020 election. The shift has produced major consequences for redistricting and other issues (a Republican takeover of the court in 2022 allowed Republicans to gerrymander the House map in advance of 2024).

In 2026, the state will have one justice on the ballot: Anita Earls, one of the two Democratic justices. As a result, Democrats will only be able to tread water if they win in 2026; they will have to wait until 2028 before three Republican justices face the voters and a more sweeping reversal on the court could occur.

Observers say Earls has been campaigning more heavily than normal for this stage of the election cycle. Earls was a civil rights attorney before joining the bench.

One Republican has announced a challenge: state Rep. Sarah Stevens. Elected to the state House in 2008, Stevens has been a key player in the Republican legislative majority that took over in 2011.

Michigan

In Michigan, another presidential battleground state, two seats are up in 2026, both of them held by Democratic incumbents: Chief Justice Megan Cavanagh for a full eight-year term, and Noah Hood, an appointee of Democratic Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, for a partial term.

Michigan has an unusual system for choosing supreme court justices: They are nominated by a party at conventions, but they are put on the general election ballot without a party affiliation listed. Incumbent justices are also listed as incumbents.

The GOP cannot flip the court in 2026. The Democrats currently have a 6-1 edge, so the best-case scenario for Republicans after November 2026 would be a 4-3 Democratic majority.

But even that seems unlikely at this point, with both Cavanagh and Hood considered favorites. No Republican candidate has emerged yet for either seat, though there’s plenty of time for one to announce.

Ohio

The seat held by Democrat Jennifer Brunner, a former Ohio secretary of state, will be the highest-profile Ohio supreme court contest in 2026. The results of this ideologically charged race will determine how wide the GOP edge will be: In a state that has shifted significantly to the right in recent election cycles, Brunner is now the only Democrat on the supreme court (or in any statewide office). So if she loses, the court would shift from 6-1 Republican to 7-0 Republican.

Brunner was initially expected to face Republican Justice Pat Fischer, who has described himself as “a reliable Christian Conservative.” Fischer has three years left in his current term on the supreme court, but by the time that term ends, he will be past the constitutional age limit to run again. At first, he sought to short-circuit the age limitation by trying to oust Brunner in 2026. (Republican Justice Joe Deters succeeded with a similar gambit in 2024, ousting Democratic Justice Melody Stewart.)

But in August, Fischer backed off challenging Brunner, after the state Republican Party declined to endorse him in the race. The party’s screening committee recommended endorsing Second District Court of Appeals Judge Ron Lewis instead, but the party then opted against endorsing anyone at a meeting last week. So a contested primary is likely. Other candidates are Rocky River Municipal Judge Joseph Burke; former Franklin County Common Pleas Judge Colleen O’Donnell; and Fifth District Court of Appeals Judge Andrew King.

The seat held by Republican Dan Hawkins will also be up in 2026, but no Democratic candidates have emerged yet.

Alabama

The overall ideological tilt of the Alabama Supreme Court won’t be at issue in 2026, but the state is on track to have one potentially interesting face-off.

In 2024, the Alabama supreme court ruling that frozen embryos outside the womb are children prompted IVF clinics to stop their work in Alabama. The legislature later passed a measure to grant clinics immunity, but Democrat AshLeigh Dunham is using the controversy as fuel for her bid to join what is currently an all-Republican court.

Dunham, an attorney who has engaged both professionally and personally on behalf of fertility issues, is taking on Justice Greg Shaw, who concurred in the IVF decision and who is one of three justices up for reelection in 2026. (The other two are Bill Lewis and Brad Mendheim.)

“Our supreme court needs justices who understand the real challenges families face,” Dunham said in her announcement. “The court has made some anti-family rulings that are wildly out of touch with the people of Alabama.” Dunham has said she and her husband had their daughter Aria through IVF.

Kentucky

Kentucky is a state that has a more moderate supreme court than its solidly red voting record in presidential elections would suggest. In 2024, Pamela Goodwine, who received the endorsement of Democratic Gov. Andy Beshear for an officially nonpartisan contest, easily won her supreme court election.

In 2026, Debra Hembree Lambert—who was elected by her peers on the court to a four-year term as chief justice, starting earlier this year—must face the voters of the 3rd district for reelection. The district includes a wide swath of south-central Kentucky.

Lambert, the court’s first female justice, is considered relatively moderate, and she was initially appointed to a lower court judgeship in 1999 by then-Gov. Paul Patton, a Democrat. She is also the ex-wife of former Chief Justice Joseph Lambert; name recognition in judicial races can be a significant factor. No challenger has emerged yet.

Other supreme court elections in 2026

Arkansas

Two appointees of Republican Gov. Sarah Huckabee Sanders, Nicholas Bronni and Cody Hiland, will face the voters in 2026. Each is a heavy favorite.

Georgia

While it’s a purple state on the presidential level, Georgia’s supreme court is overwhelmingly Republican, stocked with appointees of the state’s two most recent Republican governors, Nathan Deal and Brian Kemp.

Three justices—Deal appointees Sarah Warren and Charlie Bethel and Kemp appointee Ben Land—are scheduled to face the voters in 2026. At this point, all are expected to win.

Idaho

Two justices—Cynthia Meyer and Gregory Moeller—will face the voters in 2026. Neither has been especially controversial, and the court hasn’t attracted much controversy either. They are favored to win new terms.

Louisiana

Justice Jay McCallum is scheduled to face the voters in 2026. He is expected to win another term.

Minnesota

Minnesota’s court has been filled exclusively by appointees of Democratic Govs. Mark Dayton and Tim Walz. Three justices are slated to face the voters in 2026: Paul Thissen, Theodora Gaïtas, and Sarah Hennesy. All three are favored for reelection.

Nevada (This entry has been corrected; Nevada was previously listed in the retention section, but the state has nonpartisan judicial elections as opposed to retention elections)

Two members of Nevada’s nonpartisan supreme court are up for reelection in 2026: Kris Pickering and Douglas Herndon. No opponents have emerged yet.

North Dakota

Two members of the strongly conservative North Dakota supreme court are scheduled to face the voters in 2026: Douglas Bahr and Jerod Tufte. Both are heavy favorites to win.

Oregon

Chris Garrett, a nonpartisan justice but originally an appointee of Democratic then-Gov. Kate Brown, must run for reelection this cycle. He is heavily favored to win a new term.

Texas

Texas has two high courts to which justices are elected: the Texas Supreme Court and the Texas Court of Criminal Appeals. Republicans hold every seat on both courts, and they begin the 2026 election cycle favored to hold all seats on both courts.

On the Texas Supreme Court, justices Jimmy Blacklock, James Sullivan, and Brett Busby will be up for reelection in 2026. Jeffrey Boyd would be too, except that he has announced his retirement; instead, a successor chosen by Gov. Greg Abbott would be on track to run in 2026.

On the Texas Court of Criminal Appeals, Bert Richardson, Kevin Patrick Yeary, and David Newell will be up for reelection.

The GOP hasn’t lost a supreme court or court of criminal appeals election in decades, so any Democrat who decides to challenge them would be a strong underdog.

Washington state

Three seats on Washington’s officially nonpartisan but liberal court will be sent to the voters in 2026: the seats held by Raquel Montoya-Lewis and Debra Stephens, and the seat held by Charles W. Johnson, who will reach the mandatory retirement age of 75 next year.

The most recent justice to win a contested race, liberal-backed Sal Mungia, won only narrowly in 2024. But in a blue state, these seats should remain in liberal hands.

West Virginia

Tom Ewing, a justice appointed by Republican Gov. Patrick Morrisey, will be on the ballot in May.

There is also a possibility of a second election, for whoever is chosen by Morrisey to fill the seat of Justice Tim Armstead, who died in August.

Retention elections in 2026

Historically, judges facing retention elections have close to a 100% winning percentage. A rare exception came in 2024, when Oklahoma Justice Yvonne Kauger lost her retention race. Kauger, who was 87 and had been appointed to the bench in 1984 by Democratic Gov. George Nigh, was denied retention, though narrowly—by fewer than 7,000 votes out of more than 1.4 million cast.

At times, critics of a judge will try to organize opposition to retention, but we are not seeing any examples of that yet for the 2026 cycle. As a result, none of the retention elections in the following states is expected to produce a “no” vote—at least the way things look now.

Alaska

Republican Gov. Mike Dunleavy has appointed four of Alaska’s five supreme court justices. One of them, Jude Pate, is scheduled to face a retention election in 2026, and he’s expected to prevail.

Arizona

Though it’s a presidential battleground state, Arizona’s seven-member court includes six justices appointed by Republican governors, with one appointed by Democratic Gov. Katie Hobbs. One of the Republican appointees, John Lopez IV, has a retention election scheduled for 2026. No organized effort to deny retention has emerged yet.

In 2024, Arizona voters overwhelmingly rejected a ballot measure placed by the GOP legislature that would have eliminated retention elections in favor of lifetime appointments.

California

Two of the seven members of the California supreme court will face retention elections in 2026: Kelli Evans and Joshua Groban (no, not that one). Evans was appointed by Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom, while Groban was appointed by Newsom’s Democratic predecessor, Jerry Brown. Each should be easily returned to the court.

Colorado

Justices on Colorado’s seven-member supreme court have been appointed exclusively by Democratic governors. One appointed by then-Gov. (now Sen.) John Hickenlooper is up for retention in 2026: William W. Hood III. He is expected to be retained.

Florida

Florida has one state supreme court retention election in 2026: Chief Justice Carlos G. Muñiz, who was appointed by Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis in 2019. In this increasingly red state—a state that has never voted against retention since the process was instituted in the 1970s—Muñiz is expected to prevail easily.

Kansas

Kansas has been known for some anti-retention efforts in recent years, but nothing is on the horizon so far this cycle.

The court, though officially nonpartisan, has four Democratic appointees and two Republican appointees, plus one vacancy—an unusual tilt for a red state. Perhaps not surprisingly, the Republican legislature has placed on the ballot a measure to make the state supreme court justices elected by the voters. The measure is scheduled to be considered on the Aug. 4, 2026, ballot.

One of the supreme court’s Democratic-appointed justices, Eric Rosen, is due for a retention election in 2026.

Maryland

Unusually for a solidly blue state, Maryland has a supreme court with five of seven appointments made by former GOP Gov. Larry Hogan. One of the two Democratic-appointed justices—Peter K. Killough, appointed by Gov. Wes Moore—is up for retention in 2026. He should secure the voters’ backing easily.

Missouri

Though officially nonpartisan, five justices of Missouri’s supreme court were appointed by Republican governors and two by Democratic governors. Paul Wilson, one of the Democratic-appointed justices, is up for retention in 2026. In solidly red Missouri, this makes Wilson theoretically vulnerable to an anti-retention campaign, though none has emerged yet.

New Mexico

Two appointees of Democratic Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham—Shannon Bacon and David Thomson—are scheduled to face a retention election in 2026. They are heavily favored to be retained.

Oklahoma

Like Texas, Oklahoma has both a supreme court and a court of criminal appeals. In 2026, four supreme court justices—M. John Kane IV, Travis Jett, Dana Kuehn, and Richard Darby—are slated to face retention elections. While the justices are officially nonpartisan, Kane, Jett, and Kuehn were appointed by Republican Gov. Kevin Stitt, while Darby was appointed by Republican then-Gov. Mary Fallin. The court consists of six Republican-appointed justices and three Democratic-appointed justices.

In addition, two members of the court of criminal appeals—Rob Hudson and Gary Lumpkin—are scheduled to face retention votes. This court has four Republican-appointed justices (including Hudson and Lumpkin) plus one Democratic-appointed justice.

In this solidly red state, retention for each of these Republican justices is expected.

Tennessee

One member of the Tennessee Court of Appeals, Valerie Smith, and one member of the Tennessee Court of Criminal Appeals, Steven W. Sword, are up for retention elections in 2026. Both are expected to prevail.

Utah

Diana Hagen, an appointee of Republican Gov. Spencer Cox, and Jill Pohlman, an appointee of Cox’s Republican predecessor, Gary Herbert, are due for retention elections in 2026.

Earlier this year, Utah legislators backed off—at least for now—proposals that would have changed how judges are retained. Some saw the legislature’s effort as a way to push back against supreme court decisions on redistricting and abortion that legislators opposed. Critics of the legislature’s push said it would have intruded on judicial independence.

Wyoming

Justice Robert Jarosh, appointed by Republican Gov. Mark Gordon, is up for retention in 2026.

In two other states, justices were scheduled to face retention elections in 2026 but decided to retire instead: Lindsey Miller-Lerman in Nebraska and Janine M. Kern in South Dakota. By our reading of state law, both appointees to succeed them should face the voters in retention elections after the 2026 elections, so we’re not counting those races here.

Additional retirements in the coming months could shape whether some of the elections described above happen in 2026 or not. We’ll publish a revised analysis of state supreme court races closer to November 2026.