Handicapping The 2026 State Legislative Map: A First Look

Dear Readers: Senior Columnist Louis Jacobson covers several categories of state-level races for the Crystal Ball. Today, he takes a look at the race for state legislatures in 2026; previously he analyzed state supreme courts, secretaries of state, and attorneys general. He will update these races later in the year. — The Editors

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE

— In our first handicapping of state legislature control for the 2026 cycle, we find 15 chambers that are competitive—either Leans Republican, Toss-up, or Leans Democratic. That’s slightly higher than the number we found at a similar point in the 2022 and 2024 election cycles.

— At this point in the 2026 cycle, the Republicans are playing defense in more chambers than the Democrats are. The GOP currently holds 8 of the competitive chambers, while the Democrats hold 4 of them. Meanwhile, both Alaska chambers are controlled by a cross-partisan alliance that is favored to continue, and Minnesota’s House chamber should revert to being tied once vacancies are filled by special elections later this month.

— Among the chambers we rate as competitive, 9 are Toss-ups. This category includes 6 Republican-held chambers (the Arizona Senate, the Arizona House, the Michigan House, the New Hampshire House, the Wisconsin Senate, and the Wisconsin House) and 2 Democratic-held chambers (the Michigan Senate and the Minnesota Senate), as well as the aforementioned, tied Minnesota House.

— In many states, Democrats are looking forward to a favorable cycle, driven by a reaction to President Donald Trump and his policies. However, in some states, voters may be tired of Democratic governance at the state level, creating cross-cutting pressures.

— In a number of legislative chambers controlled by Republicans, Democrats are hoping to ride a blue wave and break GOP supermajorities.

Assessing control of the state legislatures for 2026

In a 2026 midterm environment that is shaping up to have a blue tint, some of the most important battlegrounds in November are the state legislatures.

In our first handicapping of state legislature control of the 2026 cycle, we find 15 chambers that are competitive—either Leans Republican, Toss-up, or Leans Democratic. That’s slightly higher than the number we found at a similar point in the 2022 and 2024 election cycles.

Befitting the dynamics of the first midterm election of President Donald Trump’s second term, the Republicans are currently playing defense to a disproportionate degree.

The GOP currently holds 8 of the chambers we deem competitive, while the Democrats hold 4. Meanwhile, both Alaska chambers are controlled by a cross-partisan alliance that is favored to continue, and Minnesota’s House chamber should revert to being tied once vacancies are filled by special elections in early 2026.

Among the chambers we rate as competitive, 9 of them are rated Toss-up. This category includes 6 Republican-held chambers (the Arizona Senate, the Arizona House, the Michigan House, the New Hampshire House, the Wisconsin Senate, and the Wisconsin House) and 2 Democratic-held chambers (the Michigan Senate and the Minnesota Senate), plus the tied Minnesota House.

The 2026 cycle represents the 13th cycle I have handicapped state legislature control, dating back to the 2002 cycle. (Previous versions have been published in the Cook Political Report, the Rothenberg Political Report, Stateline.org, and Governing magazine.)

This analysis is based on interviews with dozens of state and national political sources. We rate chambers on the following scale: Safe Republican, Likely Republican, Leans Republican, Toss-up, Leans Democratic, Likely Democratic, and Safe Democratic. The categories labeled “Leans” and “Toss-up” are considered competitive or in play.

Notably, because it differs from other widely used handicapping definitions, the chambers categorized as “Likely” for my state legislative handicapping efforts aren’t expected to shift partisan control, but they could see seat gains by the minority party or are marginally less solid than “Safe” for the majority party.

In our analysis, two chambers rate as Leans Republican, both of them currently Republican-held: the New Hampshire Senate and the Pennsylvania Senate. Two chambers rate as Leans Democratic, both of them currently held by Democrats: the Maine House and the Pennsylvania House. The 15 competitive chambers are listed in Table 1.

Table 1: Most competitive state legislative chambers

For the sake of comparison, my first handicapping of recent cycles found 12 competitive chambers in 2024; 10 in 2022; 15 in 2020, and 18 in 2018.

In many states, Democrats are looking forward to a favorable year driven by a reaction to President Donald Trump and his policies. However, in some states, voters may be tired of Democratic governance at the state level. States with such cross-cutting pressures include Michigan and Minnesota.

The chambers in this cycle’s Likely categories are worth a mention. These chambers are not considered competitive, but the majority party may be at risk of losing seats, in some cases enough to cost them a supermajority that provides them a procedural advantage. In other words, this is our way of flagging these chambers as being worth monitoring even as we fully expect the majority party to remain the same in 2027.

In all, we rate 14 chambers as Likely Republican and four as Likely Democratic. That’s an increase over the number of likely ratings in our initial handicapping in the 2024 cycle; two years ago, we rated eight chambers Likely Republican and five Likely Democratic. The main reason for the increase in 2026? This year, there are more Republican-held chambers that aren’t in line to flip control outright, but which Democrats, aided by the blue environment, might be able to end Republican supermajorities. In many cases, Democrats would only need to net seats in the low-to-mid single digits.

For now, the Likely Republican chambers are both chambers in Florida, Georgia, Iowa, Missouri, North Carolina, and Ohio, plus the Indiana House and the Kansas House.

The Likely Democratic chambers include both chambers in Delaware, plus the Maine Senate and the Nevada Senate.

In 2022, the Democrats had an unexpectedly good year on the legislative level. They flipped both chambers of the Michigan legislature as well as the Minnesota Senate and the Pennsylvania House, and they came within a hair of flipping the New Hampshire House. But in 2024, the Republicans performed strongly in legislative elections, flipping the Michigan House, moving into a tie in the Minnesota House, and defending some vulnerable chambers, including both in Arizona.

In the big picture, though, the GOP has held a consistent edge in state legislative chambers for more than a decade.

Currently, the GOP controls 56 legislative chambers, while the Democrats control 39 chambers. (We’re counting both Alaska chambers and the tied Minnesota House as “other,” while Nebraska’s unicameral legislature is formally nonpartisan.) Prior to the 2018 election, the GOP held 65 chambers, and before the 2016 election, the party held 68 chambers.

Earlier, the Democrats held the edge. As recently as the run-up to the 2010 election, Democrats had a 62 to 36 advantage in chambers. But Democrats lost ground for a variety of factors, including the 2010 GOP wave, a strong GOP redistricting cycle following the 2010 census, and the slow but permanent loss of yellow-dog Democratic chambers in the South.

We will reassess these ratings periodically before Election Day as the political environment develops, both nationally and locally. For now, what follows are ratings and a thumbnail analysis for each state, except for those states that do not have races this year in one or both chambers.

For the most recent makeup of each chamber, we used the most recent state-by-state data from Ballotpedia. We generally do not include vacant seats in our calculations, but we have noted a few cases in which current vacancies determine party control.

Map 1 shows the current party control of state legislatures.

Map 1: Party control of state legislatures

Here is our state-by-state review.

ALABAMA

Senate: Republican (27 R, 8 D) Safe Republican

House: Republican (75 R, 29 D) Safe Republican

A midterm blue wave seems highly unlikely to make much of a dent in Alabama, where the GOP holds roughly 3-to-1 margins in each chamber.

ALASKA

Senate: Bipartisan coalition control; favored to continue

House: Bipartisan coalition control; favored to continue

Partisanship in the Alaska legislature is more fluid than in almost any other state, with pragmatic Republicans often siding with (generally moderate) Democrats rather than with conservative hardliners within their own party. “Friends and neighbors” politics is especially influential in remote, isolated precincts, and the state’s top-four, ranked-choice system complicates handicapping. Often, control of one or both chambers isn’t settled until long after Election Night.

The Alaska Senate has operated under cross-partisan control since 2022 and the Alaska House has had one in place since 2016. We expect those arrangements to continue after the 2026 elections.

ARIZONA

Senate: Republican (17 R, 13 D) Toss-up

House: Republican (33 R, 27 D) Toss-up

Democrats had a disappointing 2024 in Arizona, losing a seat in the Senate and two in the House as Kamala Harris failed to duplicate Joe Biden’s presidential victory in the state in 2020. Democrats should have a better environment in 2026, and the margins remain close enough that we’re rating both chambers as Toss-ups. The reelection bid by Democratic Gov. Katie Hobbs, which is widely regarded as a Toss-up, should play a role.

ARKANSAS

Senate: Republican (28 R, 6 D) Safe Republican

House: Republican (80 R, 19 D) Safe Republican

Both chambers in Arkansas are safe for the GOP. Democrats would like to break the three-quarters supermajority in the House that’s required for most tax and budget bills. There is a pathway for that, involving pickups in the Arkansas Delta, north Pulaski County (Little Rock), and Northwest Arkansas, but it’s a longshot. By contrast, there is no pathway for Democrats to break the Republicans’ supermajority in the Senate. Until we see hard evidence of the likelihood of Democratic gains in the House, we’ll keep both chambers at Safe Republican.

CALIFORNIA

Senate: Democratic (30 D, 10 R) Safe Democratic

Assembly: Democratic (60 D, 20 R) Safe Democratic

Both California chambers are three-quarters Democratic, and despite some incremental improvement in the Republican bench in the state, there’s no indication that the Democrats’ two-thirds supermajority in either chamber is in danger. In fact, Democrats are eyeing a flip of at least two seats in the historically Republican-leaning Inland Empire. A much bigger concern for Democrats would be the messy gubernatorial primary producing a top-two finish that leaves two Republican candidates competing for the governorship in November. If that happens, Democrats will be relieved to maintain such dominance in the legislature.

COLORADO

Senate: Democratic (23 D, 12 R) Safe Democratic

House: Democratic (43 D, 22 R) Safe Democratic

Democrats are close to supermajority status in both chambers and could achieve it in 2026.

CONNECTICUT

Senate: Democratic (25 D, 11 R) Safe Democratic

House: Democratic (102 D, 49 R) Safe Democratic

Though Connecticut’s state Senate was tied as recently as 2018, the Democrats now have large margins in both chambers, thanks to the rise of Trump, who turned wealthy towns along the coast from Republican to Democratic. Democratic Gov. Ned Lamont has governed in a moderate fashion, and he’s seeking a third term in 2026; the state’s fiscal position is the best it’s been in years, which should help assure continued Democratic control. Democrats could even pick up a handful of seats in the Senate.

DELAWARE

Senate: Democratic (15 D, 6 R) Likely Democratic

House: Democratic (27 D, 14 R) Likely Democratic

If Democrats can flip one seat in the Delaware House, they would achieve supermajority status, joining an existing supermajority in the Delaware Senate. A supermajority would mean that Democrats could pursue constitutional amendments without seeking GOP support. However, the situation is complicated; three big issues could stand in the way of additional gains for Democrats. One is a court-ordered statewide property reassessment for the first time in 40 years; Democrats could take the blame for big tax increases and confusion over the process. Another concern is a recent recommendation that school districts in New Castle County (Wilmington) be merged. The area is one of the battlegrounds where Democrats are hoping to flip a seat, but the school merger recommendation could prompt parental anger. A third concern for Democrats is a battle over proposed data centers, which has created intraparty rifts between building-trade unions and politicians worried about voter backlash. In all, there’s no risk of Democrats losing control of either chamber, but there’s enough ferment for Republicans to hope for some incremental gains, so we’re rating both chambers Likely Democratic.

FLORIDA

Senate: Republican (27 R, 11 D, 1 I) Likely Republican

House: Republican (84 R, 33 D) Likely Republican

Democrats have been on such a long-term decline in Florida that it’s hard to muster any optimism for the party these days, despite the expected blue midterm cycle in 2026. But have Florida Democrats hit rock bottom, after squandering a party registration lead that now stands at a 1.4 million GOP edge? Have Florida Republicans worn out their welcome, after holding unified control of the state legislature since 1996? These remain open questions. There’s no chance of Democrats flipping either legislative chamber in Florida this year, but it’s possible they could make some incremental gains. Notably, Democrats would need single-digit net gains in either chamber to break the GOP’s supermajority, a status that allows Republicans to unilaterally waive some procedural rules. Breaking the supermajority could also give Democrats greater say on proposing constitutional amendments, imposing unfunded mandates on local governments, and creating new exemptions to public records requests. We’ll be reading the tea leaves in Florida in the coming months, but there’s enough ferment so far to rate both chambers Likely Republican rather than Safe Republican.

GEORGIA

Senate: Republican (31 R, 23 D) Likely Republican

House: Republican (99 R, 79 D) Likely Republican

Democrats are feeling optimistic about competing in Georgia in 2026 after flipping two Public Service Commission seats and a state House seat in 2025. For now, the Republicans’ margins in both chambers are too big for Democrats to envision flipping either one in a single cycle, but net Democratic gains are quite possible. For now, we’re rating both chambers Likely Republican.

HAWAII

Senate: Democratic (21 D, 3 R) Safe Democratic

House: Democratic (42 D, 9 R) Safe Democratic

Hawaii continues to be a one-party state. Both the House and Senate will retain safe Democratic supermajorities.

IDAHO

Senate: Republican (29 R, 6 D) Safe Republican

House: Republican (61 R, 9 D) Safe Republican

In both Idaho chambers, Republicans’ supermajority control is rock solid.

ILLINOIS

Senate: Democratic (40 D, 19 R) Safe Democratic

House: Democratic (78 D, 40 R) Safe Democratic

As long as Illinois Republicans focus on issues that motivate downstate conservatives, there is no chance of significant gains in the Chicagoland suburbs, which comprise the state’s most influential electorate.

INDIANA

Senate: Republican (39 R, 10 D) Safe Republican

House: Republican (70 R, 30 D) Likely Republican

Indiana’s battle over congressional redistricting tore apart the Republican legislative conferences, splitting those strongly aligned with President Donald Trump and those who were offended by national Republican efforts to control Hoosier prerogatives. This intraparty fight could have unpredictable impacts in the 2026 elections, including promised primaries against legislators who voted against redistricting; if incumbents are ousted, they could bolster conservative Republicans’ influence in the legislature. Either way, the 2026 midterm’s expected blue environment could help Democrats pick up the four House seats they need to break the GOP supermajority, though the Senate’s Republican supermajority is secure.

IOWA

Senate: Republican (33 R, 17 D) Likely Republican

House: Republican (67 R, 33 D) Likely Republican

The Republican edge in both Iowa chambers is too large for Democrats to flip in one cycle. But there are signs that Iowa could be fertile ground for Democrats in 2026, including competitive, open-seat races for governor and senator, special election overperformances in 2025, and a victory in a special Senate election that broke the Republican supermajority. As recently as Dec. 30, Democrats overperformed in a state Senate special election to maintain the block on a GOP supermajority in that chamber. The House could be next for a broken supermajority: Democrats only need to net one seat to do it.

KANSAS

Senate: Republican (31 R, 9 D) No regular elections in 2026

House: Republican (88 R, 37 D) Likely Republican

Democrats want to break the House supermajority, which will require a net gain of five seats. Whether they can manage that will depend heavily on how the highly competitive open-seat gubernatorial race shakes out.

KENTUCKY

Senate: Republican (32 R, 6 D) Safe Republican

House: Republican (80 R, 20 D) Safe Republican

Both chambers in Kentucky are solidly Republican.

LOUISIANA

Senate: Republican (28 R, 10 D) No regular elections in 2026

House: Republican (71 R, 29 D) No regular elections in 2026

MAINE

Senate: Democratic (20 D, 14 R, 1 I) Likely Democratic

House: Democratic (74 D, 72 R, 3 I) Leans Democratic

The Democratic majority in the Maine House is favored to hold thanks to support from aligned independents, but the close numerical margin keeps this chamber on the competitive list. The Democratic edge in the state Senate is a bit more secure.

MARYLAND

Senate: Democratic (34 D, 13 R) Safe Democratic

House: Democratic (102 D, 39 R) Safe Democratic

Democrats hold comfortable supermajorities in both chambers. No more than a couple of seats in each chamber will be seriously contested in November and given the backlash to Trump administration policies on federal workers, the 2026 midterm results should be especially blue in Maryland.

MASSACHUSETTS

Senate: Democratic (34 D, 5 R) Safe Democratic

House: Democratic (132 D, 25 R, 1 I) Safe Democratic

The Massachusetts legislature will remain overwhelmingly Democratic.

MICHIGAN

Senate: Democratic (19 D, 18 R, with one Democratic seat vacant pending a special election) Toss-up

House: Republican (58 R, 52 D) Toss-up

Michigan will be a huge battleground in 2026, with competitive races for U.S. Senate, U.S. House, governor, and several state executive offices. How these contests shape up will likely have an impact on elections for both legislative chambers. Will an expected blue midterm environment outweigh voter fatigue from Democrats having held the key statewide offices since 2018 or longer? Democrats narrowly control the state Senate (there is a vacancy in a competitive, Democratic-held district that will be filled in a special election later this year), while Republicans control the state House by a slightly larger margin. For now, it’s impossible to consider these chambers anything other than Toss-ups.

MINNESOTA

Senate: Democratic (34 D, 33 R) Toss-up

House: Tied (67 R, 65 D, with two Democratic-leaning seats vacant pending special elections) Toss-up

For a generally blue state, Minnesota’s legislature has been narrowly divided for several cycles running. Add to that a growing fatigue with Democratic-Farmer-Labor Gov. Tim Walz, who decided in January not to seek a third term amid growing baggage from public benefits fraud cases on his watch, and it’s clear that control of both chambers in Minnesota will be highly competitive in 2026. Will an expected blue environment, aggressive federal immigration enforcement in Minneapolis, and Republican Party weaknesses protect the DFL? For now, both chambers rate as Toss-ups.

MISSISSIPPI

Senate: Republican (34 R, 18 D) No regular elections in 2026

House: Republican (78 R, 42 D, 2 I) No regular elections in 2026

MISSOURI

Senate: Republican (24 R, 10 D) Likely Republican

House: Republican (106 R, 52 D) Likely Republican

Republican control is not at risk in 2026, but the GOP’s longstanding supermajorities could be. Democrats need only a handful of seats in either chamber to break them. A favorable midterm environment could make that possible, even in a state as red as Missouri.

MONTANA

Senate: Republican (32 R, 18 D) Safe Republican

House: Republican (58 R, 42 D) Safe Republican

Democrats made redistricting-related gains in both chambers in 2024, and Democrats in the state Senate have worked with pragmatic Republicans to pass some proposals without the help of the party’s more conservative wing. But given the state of the Democratic Party in this solidly red state, the party would be faring well to hold on to their 2024 seat gains.

NEBRASKA

Nebraska’s legislature is formally nonpartisan and unicameral; we do not handicap the chamber. However, Democrats are hoping to net one seat to break an unofficial GOP supermajority.

NEVADA

Senate: Democratic (13 D, 8 R) Likely Democratic

Assembly: Democratic (27 D, 15 R) Safe Democratic

The current lines in Nevada heavily favor continued Democratic control, and state Assembly Democrats are two seats away from a supermajority. (Senate Democrats are further away from getting to a supermajority.) A key question for 2026 is how well Republican Gov. Joe Lombardo fares in his quest to win a second term.

NEW HAMPSHIRE

Senate: Republican (16 R, 8 D) Leans Republican

House: Republican (217 R, 177 D, 1 I) Toss-up

Democrats probably have a better shot at flipping at least one legislative chamber in New Hampshire than they do of ousting Republican Kelly Ayotte as governor (a post that is contested every two years). The GOP majority in the state Senate is fairly well protected by how the districts have been drawn, but the enormous state House is always a crapshoot and is highly sensitive to national political tides, which in 2026 would probably mean a wind at Democrats’ backs. One tell heading into the election would be whether Ayotte works to boost downballot Republicans, as then-Gov. Chris Sununu did in 2020, or cuts them loose to focus on her own reelection, as Sununu did in 2018.

NEW JERSEY

Senate: Democratic (25 D, 15 R) No regular elections in 2026

Assembly: Democratic (57 D, 23 R) No regular elections in 2026

NEW MEXICO

Senate: Democratic (26 D, 16 R) No regular elections in 2026

House: Democratic (44 D, 26 R) Safe Democratic

House Democrats need three seats to secure a supermajority; it’s unclear whether they can get there. The state has an open-seat gubernatorial race this year, so Republican hopes rest on nominating a candidate who can make that contest competitive.

NEW YORK

Senate: Democratic (39 D, 22 R) Safe Democratic

Assembly: Democratic (101 D, 47 R) Safe Democratic

New York Democrats have strong majorities in both chambers, so the focus in 2026 will be on whether they can return to the Senate supermajority status they lost in 2024. In an election environment that should be bluer in New York than either 2022 or 2024, that’s plausible.

NORTH CAROLINA

Senate: Republican (30 R, 20 D) Likely Republican

House: Republican (71 R, 49 D) Likely Republican

The GOP’s continued control of both chambers is not in doubt, but whether they secure a supermajority in either chamber is in play, and that’s an especially important benchmark in North Carolina, where the legislature is Republican and governor is a Democrat. Republicans hold a supermajority in the Senate, but Democrats could break that with a one-seat gain. In the House, the GOP is looking to return to a supermajority by netting an additional seat. Any mix of outcomes is considered possible at this point, especially with a marquee open U.S. Senate race expected to draw tons of money and attention into the state.

NORTH DAKOTA

Senate: Republican (42 R, 5 D) Safe Republican

House: Republican (83 R, 11 D) Safe Republican

Republicans hold overwhelming majorities in both chambers. Given the weak Democratic Party in North Dakota, Democrats would be lucky to gain any ground here, even in a blue midterm environment.

OHIO

Senate: Republican (24 R, 9 D) Likely Republican

House: Republican (65 R, 34 D) Likely Republican

Both chambers are poised to remain Republican, but it’s possible that Democrats could gain incrementally in Ohio, aided by the expected blue midterm cycle. Netting six seats in the House would break the Republican supermajority. (The Senate supermajority appears safe.) Whether Democrats can manage that depends on whether they can reverse the party’s steep decline in the state by overperforming in the closely watched U.S. Senate and gubernatorial races this year.

OKLAHOMA

Senate: Republican (40 R, 8 D) Safe Republican

House: Republican (80 R, 19 D) Safe Republican

Republicans in Oklahoma are in no danger of losing either their majority or their supermajority in both chambers.

OREGON

Senate: Democratic (18 D, 12 R) Safe Democratic

House: Democratic (37 D, 23 R) Safe Democratic

Given the likelihood of an anti-Trump environment in 2026, Oregon Republicans would be doing well if they can hold what they have now. Democrats might have a shot at taking one or both chambers with a two-thirds supermajority (more likely the Senate). That threshold hasn’t been reached by either party since 1996.

PENNSYLVANIA

Senate: Republican (27 R, 23 D) Leans Republican

House: Democratic (100 D, 99 R, four vacancies) Leans Democratic

Democrats are favored to hold the state House, which they should narrowly control once vacant seats are filled. The Senate has been a tougher nut for Democrats to crack, but with popular Gov. Josh Shapiro on the ballot in 2026, it’s possible that his coattails and a blue environment could make it possible.

RHODE ISLAND

Senate: Democratic (34 D, 4 R) Safe Democratic

House: Democratic (64 D, 10 R, 1 I) Safe Democratic

Rhode Island’s big-tent Democratic Party suffers from ongoing rifts between moderates and progressives, but there’s no indication that Democratic dominance in the legislature is in danger of reversing, especially given that the pipeline of qualified Republican candidates has stalled.

SOUTH CAROLINA

Senate: Republican (34 R, 12 D) No regular elections in 2026

House: Republican (88 R, 36 D) Safe Republican

Republicans have solid control of both chambers in South Carolina, though if the Democrats can somehow net five seats in the state House, they would break the GOP supermajority in the chamber. The open-seat gubernatorial race, with a competitive and volatile GOP primary, will attract most of the attention.

SOUTH DAKOTA

Senate: Republican (32 R, 3 D) Safe Republican

House: Republican (65 R, 5 D) Safe Republican

There is zero chance that the Democrats will gain control of either SD legislative chamber in 2026. The state’s weakened Democratic Party would be lucky to gain a seat or two in one chamber or the other.

TENNESSEE

Senate: Republican (27 R, 6 D) Safe Republican

House: Republican (75 R, 24 D) Safe Republican

Tennessee’s Republicans are dominant in both chambers. Don’t expect any changes to that.

TEXAS

Senate: Republican (18 R, 11 D) Safe Republican

House: Republican (88 R, 62 D) Safe Republican

GOP control of both chambers should be solid, but a blue midterm cycle gives Democrats an opportunity to pick off a few seats, especially with the possibility that polarizing Attorney General Ken Paxton could win the GOP nomination for U.S. Senate. But will the possibility of polarizing U.S. Rep. Jasmine Crockett winning the Democratic nomination for Senate even out that opportunity? For now, we’re rating both Texas chambers Safe Republican, but future developments could change that dynamic.

UTAH

Senate: Republican (22 R, 6 D, 1 I) Safe Republican

House: Republican (61 R, 14 D) Safe Republican

If a court-ordered congressional redistricting holds, Democrats will likely gain a U.S. House seat in Utah. This case only applied to Utah’s congressional boundaries, so Democrats likely won’t see equally dramatic gains in either state legislative chamber, where the Republicans hold massive majorities.

VERMONT

Senate: Democratic (16 D, 13 R, 1 I) Safe Democratic

House: Democratic (87 D, 56 R, 7 I) Safe Democratic

Republicans made significant gains in both chambers in Vermont in 2024, thanks to the strong coattails of popular moderate Republican Gov. Phil Scott, who has not yet announced whether he will seek another two-year term this year. It’s possible that Democrats could grab back a few of those gains in 2026, but either way, their majority hold on both chambers is not in serious doubt.

VIRGINIA

Senate: Democratic (20 D, 19 R, one vacancy in a heavily Democratic district) No regular elections in 2026

House: Democratic (64 D, 36 R) No regular elections in 2026

WASHINGTON

Senate: Democratic (30 D, 19 R) Safe Democratic

House: Democratic (59 D, 39 R) Safe Democratic

Any significant Republican gains in either chamber in Washington state are unlikely, with anti-Trump sentiment likely to outweigh fatigue with longstanding Democratic governance.

WEST VIRGINIA

Senate: Republican (31 R, 2 D) Safe Republican

House: Republican (90 R, 9 D) Safe Republican

Any benefit from a blue electoral environment seems unlikely to benefit West Virginia’s cratering Democrats. The GOP’s massive edge in both chambers is ultra-solid, with any divisions showing up within the GOP between pragmatists and ideologues.

WISCONSIN

Senate: Republican (18 R, 15 D) Toss-up

Assembly: Republican (54 R, 45 D) Toss-up

A court-ordered redistricting produced Democratic legislative gains in 2024 even as Kamala Harris was losing the state. Wisconsin Democrats now have a chance to win control of one or both legislative chambers for the first time since 2011 (not counting a short-lived majority in the state Senate in 2012 due to recall elections). The odds of Democrats flipping the Senate appear higher than flipping the Assembly. Senators up for reelection in 2026 are running in newly-constructed districts for the first time, and Republicans are defending many more seats than Democrats are. Democrats have also fielded some formidable candidates in several swing districts currently represented by Republican state senators. The outcome of the top-of-the-ticket open-seat race for governor could help determine whether Democrats take majorities or the GOP holds on. Regardless of which party wins control, the post-election balance between the parties should be close.

WYOMING

Senate: Republican (29 R, 2 D) Safe Republican

House: Republican (56 R, 6 D) Safe Republican

Democrats are an afterthought in Wyoming; to the extent there’s factionalism, it’s between Freedom Caucus Republicans, who control the House and nearly control the Senate, and more pragmatic Republicans. The Democrats may pick up a seat or two, but any gains will be all but meaningless given the massive Republican edge in both chambers.

Louis Jacobson is a Senior Columnist for Sabato’s Crystal Ball. He is also the chief correspondent at the fact-checking website PolitiFact and is chief author of the Almanac of American Politics 2026. He was senior author of the Almanac’s 2016, 2018, 2020, 2022, and 2024 editions and a contributing writer for the 2000 and 2004 editions.

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