Commentary By Lakshya Jain

How the Electorate Changes from Presidential to Midterm Years By Lakshya Jain

A higher share of white college graduates could help Democrats, but a decline in nonwhite voters could hurt them.

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE

— Midterm electorates are typically whiter and more educated than presidential electorates.

— At one time, this sort of change from the presidential to the midterm electorate might have made midterm electorates worse for Democrats. But given changes in the electorate, this midterm turnout pattern may actually aid Democrats, or at least not hurt them as much as it once did.

— Minority turnout has fluctuated and is a wild card that plays a big role in determining baseline partisan leans and advantages — presidential-level turnout means Democrats enjoy the advantage, whereas dips favor Republicans.

— The outcome in key swing states whiter than the national average, such as Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and New Hampshire, may be influenced heavily by educational turnout differential. In states with large nonwhite cores, such as North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona, and Nevada, minority turnout will play a more critical role.

Demographics and Expectations: Analyzing Biden and Trump’s Performances By Lakshya Jain

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE

— The predictive power of demographics makes county margins strongly correlated and thus inferable from each other. Comparing the actual results to the expected results based on county demographics gives us a better idea of candidate performance.

— In the 2020 presidential election, Democrats overperformed in states with high numbers of educated white voters, such as Texas, Arizona, and Georgia. They also began to show signs of hitting their electoral floors in much of Appalachia.

— Strong Republican showings with evangelicals, non-college whites, and Hispanics helped Trump overperform in Florida, Iowa, and Ohio.