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Republicans are Going to Win Big in November – Here’s Why

A Commentary By Brian C. Joondeph

If you get your news from Twitter, the New York Times or the Washington Post, or virtually any cable or TV news network, you will believe that the economy is in great shape and that the Democrats are poised to take full control of Congress after the coming congressional midterm elections in less than two weeks.

Several weeks ago The Hill boldly proclaimed, “Midterms: The big red wave has crested and turned into a rising blue tide.”  This week The Hill doubled down asserting, “Democrats widen lead to 5 points on generic congressional ballot.” The President is bullish on a blue wave, as reported by CNBC, “Biden predicts Democrats’ odds will improve as the midterm elections approach, citing economic improvements.”

It is actually economic conditions that are paving the way for a red wave. Republicans are wisely campaigning on the economy, channeling Bill Clinton’s consigliere James Carville who once observed, “It’s the economy, stupid.” Democrats, on the other hand, are pinning their hopes on abortion, green energy, and the January 6 commission.

What issues do voters care about? Democrats seem to be taking their cues from Twitter and the Sunday talk shows rather than the real world that 99% of Americans confront and live with daily. Rather than asking a CNN host to opine on what working Americans in the Midwest think, let’s ask Rasmussen Reports, one of the more accurate pollsters based on their track record and polling of “likely US voters” rather than whoever happens to answer the phone when the pollster is calling.

In their Daily Presidential Tracking poll of likely U.S. voters, they found only 22% strongly approve of President Biden’s job performance, compared with 45% strongly disapproving. As head of the Democrat Party, being underwater by 23 points doesn’t bode well for his party’s prospects in November.

Now let us look at the issues likely to determine the November wave or trickle, red or blue.

Start with the economy, stupid or not. In mid-October, Rasmussen Reports found that, “88% of Likely U.S. voters are concerned about the economy, including 60% who are very concerned. Just 10% aren’t concerned about the issue. A related issue, inflation, is concerning to 89% of voters.” Carville was right – it is the economy, stupid.

Education is another issue important to Americans in flyover country, although apparently not to Democrats and the media chattering classes in the DC-NYC axis where their children attend toney private schools, far removed from shootings, wokeness, mandates, and other features of many American public schools.

Rasmussen found in mid-October, “77% of Likely U.S. voters believe education issues will be important in this year’s congressional elections, including 45% who expect it to be very important in the midterms. Only 18% don’t think education will be an important issue in November.” Those 18% are likely either January 6 commission groupies or part of the coastal latte-sipping elite class whose kids would never cross the threshold of a public school.

Crime is another important issue to average Americans who do not live in gated communities in well policed, and police-funded, suburban enclaves. Or as the old expression summarizes, “A conservative is a liberal who has been mugged.”

A few weeks ago, Rasmussen noted, “62% of likely U.S. voters believe the problem of violent crime in America is getting worse. Only 11% think the crime problem is getting better, while 24% think the problem is staying about the same.”

Will crime be an issue? Rasmussen says yes, “83% of voters believe the issue of violent crime will be important in this year’s congressional elections, including 52% who say the crime issue will be very important. Only 15% don’t think the issue will be important in the midterms.” Those 15% are likely far removed from crime, either living in the wilderness or part of the ruling class that have “people” to protect them and their families and property from crime.

Lastly there is the hot-button issue of election integrity. Currently one cannot question election integrity without being called an “election denier” and banned from social media and polite company. But you can bet your bottom dollar that if there is a red wave in November, Russian interference and election cheating will be blamed, just as it was when Donald Trump trounced Hillary Clinton in 2016. “Election integrity” only seems to be of concern when Democrat candidates lose.

Rasmussen noted several weeks ago, “84% of likely U.S. voters believe the issue of election integrity will be important in this year's congressional elections, including 61% who expect it to be very important. Just 13% don’t think the issue will be important.”

Going further they discovered, “Nearly half (49%) of voters believe it is at least somewhat likely there will be widespread cheating that will affect the outcome of this year’s congressional elections, including 25% who say it’s very likely.” In other words, half the country are fringe kook election deniers according to big media.

Democrats are barking up irrelevant trees. A Politico-Harvard poll found that top issues for Democrat voters are abortion, guns, healthcare, and racism.

The lesson, which most Republican candidates are heeding, is to campaign on issues that voters care about, rather than listening to Liz Cheney, Morning Joe, or Chuck Todd and focusing on the liberal echo chamber concerns of January 6, abortion, and global warming.

The Washington Post is right, “Democrats are focusing on the wrong issues.” But don’t rule out the ability of the GOP to shoot themselves in the foot as Colorado GOP Senate candidate Joe O’Dea did by promising to “actively campaign against Donald Trump” who isn’t running for anything  but still has massive support within the Republican Party electorate.

Republicans are wisely focusing on issues which voters care about and this portends big wins for the GOP on November 8.



Brian C Joondeph, MD, is a physician and writer.

Follow me on Twitter @retinaldoctor

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