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Commentary by Alan I. Abramowitz

Most Recent Releases

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July 11, 2008

Is Time on John McCain's Side? By Alan I. Abramowitz

In a recent Crystal Ball article , Michael Baudinet of the University of Virginia Center for Politics argued that despite a very difficult national political environment for Republicans, John McCain has a good chance of winning the 2008 presidential election because he enjoys one key advantage over his Democratic rival, Barack Obama: McCain clinched his party's nomination three months earlier than Obama.

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May 29, 2008

Can McCain Overcome the Triple Whammy? By Alan I. Abramowitz

With the long and contentious Democratic nomination race finally winding down, the attention of the media and the public is beginning to shift to the general election. In November, voters will face a choice between two rather atypical presidential candidates.

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May 15, 2008

This is Not Your Father's (Or Mother's) Democratic Party By Alan Abramowitz

Forget about soccer moms and NASCAR dads. The key voting bloc in 2008 is the white working class. According to the new conventional wisdom of American politics, the presidential candidate who can win the support of white working class voters will have the inside track on becoming the next president of the United States.

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May 2, 2008

The Incredible Shrinking Republican Base By Alan Abramowitz

Discussions of the current political situation and comparisons between the 2008 election and earlier contests frequently overlook a crucial fact. As a result of changes in American society, today's electorate is very different from the electorate of twenty, thirty, or forty years ago.

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April 3, 2008

Superdelegate Math By Alan I. Abramowitz

It is becoming increasingly clear that the outcome of the Democratic presidential nomination will hinge on the votes of the party's so-called superdelegates, elected officials and party leaders who are automatically entitled to attend the Democratic nominating convention regardless of the results of the primaries and caucuses.

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March 14, 2008

McCain Addendum: Are Stay-at-Home Conservatives a Threat to John McCain? By Alan I. Abramowitz

Several alert readers of last week's Crystal Ball article have contacted me in the past week to question my claim that the greatest threat to Republican unity in 2008 comes from moderates, not conservatives.

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March 6, 2008

The Real Threat to McCain?: A Commentary by Alan I. Abramowitz

A lot of Republicans are unhappy with their party this year. Some conservative Republicans, following the lead of talk show hosts such as Rush Limbaugh and Sean Hannity, have been threatening to sit out the November election or vote for a third party candidate because they don't consider their party's presidential nominee, John McCain, to be sufficiently conservative.