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Generic Congressional Ballot: Republicans 44%, Democrats 41%

Republicans hold a three-point lead on the Generic Congressional Ballot for the third week in a row, this time for the week ending Sunday, May 6. 

A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that 44% of Likely U.S. Voters would vote for the Republican in their district’s congressional race if the election were held today, while 41% would choose the Democrat instead. This is nearly identical to last week’s findings and those the week before.

The national telephone survey of 3,500 Likely Voters was conducted by Rasmussen Reports from April 30-May 6, 2012. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 2 percentage point with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

What They Told Us: Reviewing Last Week’s Key Polls For The Week Ending May 5, 2012

President Obama officially launches his reelection campaign today with appearances in  Ohio and Virginia, states critical to his reelection, and recent polling shows both are in play. But overall, it’s been another so-so week for the president, with his well-received plan for winding down the war in Afghanistan offset by another anemic jobs report.

The president continues to holds a slight lead over likely GOP nominee Mitt Romney in combined polling of the key swing states of Florida, North Carolina, Ohio and Virginia. During 2008, Obama picked up 52% of the vote in these states to Republican nominee John McCain's 48%. The so-called Core Four states have 75 Electoral College votes, and if the president wins even two of these states, it will be just about impossible for the GOP candidate to win the White House.

But as Scott Rasmussen explains in a Rasmussen Report radio update, Romney needs to win all of the Core Four states. Scott is now doing three Rasmussen Report radio updates every weekday, syndicated nationally by the WOR Radio Network.

8% Give Congress Good or Excellent Marks

Voters continue to voice an overwhelmingly negative assessment of Congress’ performance.

Just eight percent (8%) of Likely U.S. Voters think the national legislature is doing a good or excellent job, according to the latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey. Sixty-four percent (64%) rate Congress' job performance as poor. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

The survey of 1,000 Likely Voters nationwide was conducted on May 2-3, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Montana: Romney 51%, Obama 44%

Mitt Romney has crossed the 50% mark now against President Obama in Montana. 

A new Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Voters in the Treasure State finds the likely Republican presidential nominee with 51% support to Obama’s 44%.  Three percent (3%) favor some other candidate in the race, while one percent (1%) are undecided.  (To see survey question wording, click here.)

(Want a free daily e-mail update? If it's in the news, it's in our polls).  Rasmussen Reports updates are also available on Twitter or Facebook.

This Montana survey of 450 Likely Voters was conducted on May 2, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Montana Senate: Rehberg (R) 53%, Tester (D) 43%

Republican Congressman Denny Rehberg holds his largest lead yet over Democratic incumbent Jon Tester in Montana’s U.S. Senate race.

A new statewide telephone survey of Likely Voters shows Rehberg ahead of Tester 53% to 43%. Two percent (2%) prefer some other candidate, and another two percent (2%) are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

(Want a free daily e-mail update? If it's in the news, it's in our polls).  Rasmussen Reports updates are also available on Twitter or Facebook.

This Montana survey of 450 Likely Voters was conducted on May 2, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

51% Think U.S., Allies Winning War on Terror

On the one-year anniversary of Osama bin Laden’s death, just over half of voters believe the United States and its allies are winning the war on terror, but they’re slightly less sure the country is safer today than it was before his terrorist attacks on September 11, 2001. 

A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds 46% of Likely U.S. Voters believe the United States is safer today than it was before 9/11. Twenty-nine percent (29%) disagree while 26% are not sure.  (To see survey question wording, click here.)

(Want a free daily e-mail update? If it's in the news, it's in our polls). Rasmussen Reports updates are also available on Twitter or Facebook.

The survey of 1,000 Likely Voters was conducted on April 30-May 1, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

31% Say U.S. Heading in Right Direction

Thirty-one percent (31%) of Likely U.S. Voters say the country is heading in the right direction, according to a new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey taken the week ending Sunday, April 29.

That's up two points from last week and the highest finding since mid-March.

Nevada: Obama 52%, Romney 44%

President Obama continues to lead Mitt Romney in a head-to-head matchup in Nevada. 

A new Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Voters in the state finds Obama earning 52% support, while Romney picks up 44% of the vote.  Two percent (2%) prefers some other candidate, and another two percent (2%) are undecided.  (To see survey question wording, click here.)

(Want a free daily e-mail update? If it's in the news, it's in our polls).  Rasmussen Reports updates are also available on Twitter or Facebook.

This Nevada survey of 500 Likely Voters was conducted on April 30, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Fieldwork for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Obama Full-Month Approval Slips Again in April

When tracking President Obama’s job approval on a daily basis, people sometimes get so caught up in the day-to-day fluctuations that they miss the bigger picture. To look at the longer-term trends, Rasmussen Reports compiles the numbers on a full-month basis, and the results can be seen in the graphics below.

Overall, approval of the president has stayed within the narrow two-point range it has been in for all of 2012.

In March, 26% of voters Strongly Approved of the president’s job performance, showing no change since February but up two points from January. The number who Strongly Disapproved of the job Obama is doing was at 41% in March, up two points from last month.

Daily tracking results are collected via telephone surveys of 500 likely voters per night. The monthly numbers in this article are based on approximately 15,000 interviews each month with likely voters. The margin of sampling error is less than +/- 1 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

Nevada Senate: Heller (R) 51%, Berkley (D) 40%

Incumbent Republican Senator Dean Heller has crossed the 50% mark of support against his likeliest Democratic challenger in his bid for election to his first full term in Nevada.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Voters in Nevada finds Heller picking up 51% of the vote against Congresswoman Shelley Berkley who draws 40% support. Just two percent (2%) prefer some other candidate, and eight percent (8%) are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

(Want a free daily e-mail update? If it's in the news, it's in our polls).  Rasmussen Reports updates are also available on Twitter or Facebook.

This Nevada survey of 500 Likely Voters was conducted on April 30, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Fieldwork for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Rasmussen Employment Index Falls Back to January Level

The Rasmussen Employment Index slipped another three points in April, bringing the index down to the level measured at the start of 2012. At 80.7, the index is still above findings throughout 2011 and matches the level measured in January. In February, the index hit a three-year high of 87.7. April’s index is up six points from a year ago and seven points from two years ago.

The survey of 8,891 working Americans was conducted in April 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 1 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC . See methodology.

Partisan Trends: Republicans 35.1%, Democrats 33.1%, Unaffiliateds 31.8%

The number of Democrats and Republicans in the United States dipped slightly in April, while the number of unaffiliated voters is up two points. 

During April, 35.1% of Americans considered themselves Republicans.  That’s down from 36.4% in March and the lowest level measured since November of last year.

Generic Congressional Ballot: Republicans 43%, Democrats 40%

Republicans hold a three-point lead on the Generic Congressional Ballot for the second week in a row, this time for the week ending Sunday, April 29. 

A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that 43% of Likely U.S. Voters would vote for the Republican in their district’s congressional race if the election were held today, while 40% would choose the Democrat instead. This is unchanged from last week’s findings.

The national telephone survey of 3,500 Likely Voters was conducted by Rasmussen Reports from April 23-29, 2012. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 2 percentage point with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

55% Favor Repeal of Health Care Law; 56% Expect Costs to Rise

Most voters still want to repeal President Obama’s national health care law, while belief that it will drive up health care costs is at its highest level in months.

The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that 55% of Likely U.S. Voters at least somewhat favor repeal of the health care law, while 36% are at least somewhat opposed. This includes 46% who Strongly Favor repeal versus 28% who are Strongly Opposed to it. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

(Want a free daily e-mail update? If it's in the news, it's in our polls). Rasmussen Reports updates are also available on Twitter or Facebook.

The survey of 1,000 Likely Voters was conducted on April 28-29, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Florida: Romney 46%, Obama 45%

Likely Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney now runs even with President Obama in the key swing state of Florida. 

A new Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Voters in the Sunshine State finds Romney with 46% of the vote, while Obama earns 45% support. Six percent (6%) prefer some other candidate, and another three percent (3%) are undecided.  (To see survey question wording, click here.)

The survey of 500 Likely Voters in Florida was conducted on April 25, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

29% Say U.S. Heading in Right Direction

Twenty-nine percent (29%) of Likely U.S. Voters say the country is heading in the right direction, according to a new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey taken the week ending Sunday, April 22.

This finding is up two points from last week and back to the level found for the previous three weeks.

(Want a free daily e-mail update? If it's in the news, it's in our polls). Rasmussen Reports updates are also available on Twitter or Facebook.

The national telephone survey of 3,500 Likely Voters was conducted by Rasmussen Reports April 16-22, 2012. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 2 percentage point with a 95% level of confidence. Fieldwork for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Virginia: Romney 45%, Obama 44%

Mitt Romney, with Rick Santorum out of the Republican race, has closed the gap with President Obama in the battleground state of Virginia. The two men are now essentially tied.

The latest telephone survey of Likely Voters in the Old Dominion finds Romney earning 45% support, while Obama picks up 44% of the vote.  Six percent (6%) prefer some other candidate, and five percent (5%) are undecided.  (To see survey question wording, click here.)

The survey of 500 Likely Voters in Virginia was conducted on April 23, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Fieldwork for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Virginia Senate: Allen (R) 46%, Kaine (D) 45%

The race for Virginia’s open U.S. Senate seat is still virtually tied.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Voters in Virginia shows Republican George Allen with 46% support to 45% for Democrat Tim Kaine. Four percent (4%) like another candidate in the race, and five percent (5%) are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

The survey of 500 Likely Voters in Virginia was conducted on April 23, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Generic Congressional Ballot: Republicans 43%, Democrats 40%

Republicans remain slightly ahead on the Generic Congressional Ballot for the week ending Sunday, April 22. 

A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that 43% of Likely U.S. Voters would vote for the Republican in their district’s congressional race if the election were held today, while 40% would choose the Democrat instead. Last week, the Republicans led by 10, the largest gap between the two parties since the beginning of 2011.

The national telephone survey of 3,500 Likely Voters was conducted by Rasmussen Reports from April 16-22, 2012. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 2 percentage point with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Ohio: Obama 46%, Romney 42%

President Obama continues to lead presumptive Republican candidate Mitt Romney in the key battleground state of Ohio but by a slightly narrower margin. 

The latest Rasmussen Reports statewide telephone survey of Likely Voters shows Obama with 46% support to Romney’s 42%.  Five percent (5%) prefers some other candidate, while eight percent (8%) are undecided.  (To see survey question wording, click here.)

This Ohio survey of 500 Likely Voters was conducted on April 18, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Fieldwork for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.