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What They Told Us: Reviewing Last Week’s Key Polls - Week Ending September 21, 2012

Mitt Romney’s newly aired comment that 47% of Americans are dependent on the government and locked in to vote for President Obama has prompted debate all week. Scott Rasmussen argues in his latest newspaper column that Romney’s remark like Obama’s notorious comment about small-town voters bitterly clinging to their guns and religion highlights the condescending attitude the political elites have towards voters.  “If he wins the White House, the only way for Romney to succeed will be to side with the nation's voters and throw out the club in Washington,” Scott writes. “That will be great news for the country but bad news for political insiders on both sides of the partisan aisle.”

Pennsylvania: Obama 51%, Romney 39%

President Obama has jumped to a double-digit lead over Mitt Romney in the battleground state of Pennsylvania.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Voters in Pennsylvania shows Obama with 51% of the vote to Romney’s 39%. Three percent (3%) prefer some other candidate in the race, and seven percent (7%) remain undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

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This Pennsylvania survey of 500 Likely Voters was conducted on September 19, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Economy Continues to Top List of Most Important Issues

The economy remains by far the top issue on voters’ minds as the November elections near. Health care and government corruption are a distant second on a list of 10 top issues regularly surveyed by Rasmussen Reports.

A new national telephone survey finds that 80% of Likely U.S. Voters rate the economy as Very Important to how they will vote in the next election. That's consistent with regular tracking since January 2008. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

Surveys of 1,000 Likely Voters each were conducted on September 13-14 and 17-18, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Wisconsin Senate: Baldwin (D) 49%, Thompson (R) 46%

Democratic Congresswoman Tammy Baldwin now has a slight lead over former Republican Governor Tommy Thompson in Wisconsin’s volatile U.S. Senate race.

A new Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Wisconsin Voters finds Baldwin with 49% support to Thompson’s 46%. Two percent (2%) like some other candidate in the race, and four percent (4%) are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

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This Wisconsin survey of 500 Likely Voters was conducted on September 17, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology. 

Wisconsin Senate: Baldwin (D) 49%, Thompson (R) 46%

Democratic Congresswoman Tammy Baldwin now has a slight lead over former Republican Governor Tommy Thompson in Wisconsin’s volatile U.S. Senate race.

A new Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Wisconsin Voters finds Baldwin with 49% support to Thompson’s 46%. Two percent (2%) like some other candidate in the race, and four percent (4%) are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

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This Wisconsin survey of 500 Likely Voters was conducted on September 17, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology. 

Iowa: Romney 47%, Obama 44%

Mitt Romney remains slightly ahead in the swing state of Iowa.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Iowa Voters shows Romney with 47% support to President Obama’s 44%. Three percent (3%) prefer some other candidate in the race, and five percent (5%) are still undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

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The survey of 500 Likely Voters in Iowa was conducted on September 19, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Nevada: Obama 47%, Romney 45%

President Obama now leads Mitt Romney by just two points in the increasingly close presidential race in Nevada.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Voters in Nevada shows the president drawing 47% of the vote to Romney’s 45%. Four percent (4%) prefer some other candidate, and three percent (3%) are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

The survey of 500 Likely Voters in Nevada was conducted on September 18, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Wisconsin: Obama 49%, Romney 46%

President Obama has regained a slight edge over Mitt Romney in Wisconsin’s presidential race.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Voters in the Badger State finds Obama with 49% support to Romney’s 46%. Two percent (2%) prefer some other candidate, while another two percent (2%) are undecided.  (To see survey question wording, click here.)

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This Wisconsin survey of 500 Likely Voters was conducted on September 17, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Nevada Senate: Heller (R) 42%, Berkley (D) 41%

Nevada’s U.S. Senate race is now a virtual tie.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Nevada Voters finds incumbent Republican Dean Heller with 42% support, while his challenger, Democratic Congresswoman Shelley Berkley, gets 41% support. Four percent (4%) like some other candidate in the race, and a sizable 12% are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

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This Nevada survey of 500 Likely Voters was conducted on September 18, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Fieldwork for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

35% Say U.S. Heading in Right Direction

Thirty-five percent (35%) of Likely U.S. Voters now say the country is heading in the right direction, according to a new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey taken the week ending Sunday, September 16.

That’s down two points from 37% the week before, the highest level of optimism since late June 2009, but is still the highest weekly finding since early April 2010.

From July 25 through December 11 of last year, voter confidence in the nation's current course resembled levels measured in the final months of the George W. Bush administration, remaining in the narrow range of 14% to 19%. That finding began climbing in early January of this year to a high of 34% in the second week of February and had been in the high 20s to low 30s in weekly tracking until two weeks ago.

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The national telephone survey of 3,500 Likely Voters was conducted by Rasmussen September 10-16, 2012. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 2 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Fieldwork for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

New Hampshire: Romney 48%, Obama 45%

Mitt Romney has now taken the lead in the swing state of New Hampshire.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Voters in New Hampshire shows Romney with 48% support to President Obama’s 45%. Four percent (4%) prefer some other candidate, and three percent (3%) are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

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This New Hampshire survey of 500 Likely Voters was conducted on September 18, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Colorado: Romney 47%, Obama 45%

Mitt Romney has edged slightly ahead of President Obama in the battleground state of Colorado. 

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Voters in Colorado finds Mitt Romney with 47% support, while Obama receives 45% of the vote.  Two percent (2%) prefer some other candidate, and six percent (6%) are undecided.  (To see survey question wording, click here.)

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The survey of 500 Likely Voters in Colorado was conducted on September 17, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Generic Congressional Ballot: Republicans 44%, Democrats 43%

Republicans once again lead Democrats on the Generic Congressional Ballot, this time for the week ending September 17, 2012.

A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey shows that 44% of Likely U.S. Voters would vote for the Republican in their district’s congressional race if the election were held today, while 43% would choose the Democrat instead.

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The national telephone survey of 3,500 Likely Voters was conducted by Rasmussen Reports from September 10-16 2012. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 2 percentage point with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

North Carolina Governor: McCrory (R) 51%, Dalton (D) 38%

Republican Pat McCrory has regained his double-digit advantage over Democratic Lieutenant Governor Walter Dalton in the race to be North Carolina’s next governor. 

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Voters in the state finds McCrory earning 51% of the vote, while Dalton picks up 38% support.  One percent (1%) prefers some other candidate, but 10% are still undecided.  (To see survey question wording, click here.

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The survey of 500 Likely Voters in North Carolina was conducted on September 13, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Virginia Senate: Kaine (D) 47%, Allen (R) 45%

Democrat Tim Kaine has moved slightly ahead of Republican George Allen in Virginia’s neck-and-neck U.S. Senate race.

A new Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Virginia Voters finds Kaine with 47% support to Allen’s 45%. Two percent (2%) like another candidate in the race, and six percent (6%) are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

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The survey of 500 Likely Voters in Virginia was conducted on September 13, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Fieldwork for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

53% Favor Repeal of Health Care Law

A majority of voters still supports repeal of President Obama’s national health care law and believes it will increase the federal deficit and the cost of health care.

The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that 53% of Likely U.S. Voters favor repeal, while 43% are opposed. This includes 45% who Strongly Favor repeal of the health care measure and 33% who are Strongly Opposed. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

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The survey of 1,000 Likely Voters was conducted on September 15-16, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Florida Senate: Nelson (D) 47%, Mack (R) 40%

Democratic incumbent Bill Nelson still leads Republican Connie Mack in Florida's hotly contested U.S. Senate race.

A new Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Voters in the Sunshine State finds Nelson with 47% support to Mack’s 40%. Five percent (5%) prefer some other candidate, while eight percent (8%) are undecided.  (To see survey question wording, click here.)

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The survey of 500 Likely Voters in Florida was conducted on September 12, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

What They Told Us: Reviewing Last Week’s Key Polls - Week Ending September 15, 2012

The presidential race definitely had its ups and downs this past week. At the start of the week, President Obama coming off a successful national convention had bounced ahead of his Republican challenger Mitt Romney. By week’s end, the bounce was gone, and the race looked like the conventions had never happened in the daily Presidential Tracking Poll. Likely to complicate the picture was the killing of the first U.S. ambassador overseas since 1979 and increasingly angry anti-U.S. protests spreading through the Middle East. In Virginia and Ohio Obama leads by a point. In Florida, the president is up two. Romney has edged back into the lead in Missouri and is up six in North Carolina. 

Ohio Senate: Brown (D) 49%, Mandel (R) 41%

Democratic Senator Sherrod Brown earns his highest level of support yet against Republican challenger Josh Mandel in Ohio’s U.S. Senate race.

The latest Rasmussen Reports statewide telephone survey of Likely Voters in Ohio shows Brown with 49% of the vote to Mandel’s 41%.  Three percent (3%) prefer some other candidate, and seven percent (7%) are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

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The survey of 500 Likely Voters in Ohio was conducted on September 12, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Virginia: Obama 49%, Romney 48%

Mitt Romney and President Obama are still running neck-and-neck in the key battleground state of Virginia.

A new Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Voters in the state finds Obama earning 49% support, while Romney picks up 48% of the vote.  One percent (1%) prefers some other candidate, and two percent (2%) are undecided.  (To see survey question wording, click here.)

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The survey of 500 Likely Voters in Virginia was conducted on September 13, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.