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Trump’s Chances for Nomination Hold Steady

Friday, October 09, 2015

All eyes are on the Democrats’ side of the equation going into their first presidential candidate debate next week, but Donald Trump remains an odds-on favorite among Republicans.

The latest Rasmussen Reports Trump Change national telephone survey finds that 58% of Likely Republican Voters believe “The Donald” is likely to end up as their party’s presidential nominee in 2016, with 24% who say it is Very Likely. Thirty-seven percent (37%) say a Trump nomination is unlikely, including 14% who feel it’s Not At All Likely. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

These findings are basically unchanged from a week ago when Trump rebounded from a recent low among GOP voters of 52% who said he is the likely nominee. A high of 66% predicted that in early September, but only 27% of Republicans felt a Trump nomination was likely when he formally announced his candidacy in mid-June

Among all likely voters, 48% think Trump is likely to win the Republican nomination; 47% consider that outcome unlikely. This includes 18% who say it is Very Likely and another 18% who believe it is Not At All Likely. This, too, is essentially the same as last week’s findings.

Since the last survey, Trump has said gun control is not the answer to incidents like the recent college shooting in Oregon and has announced his opposition to bringing any Syrian refugees to the United States.

GOP voters overwhelmingly oppose stricter gun control laws. Fifty-nine percent (59%) of Republicans – and 49% of all voters – say the government should not allow any refugees to come here to help Europe deal with the Middle Eastern migrant crisis it is now facing.

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The survey of 1,000 Likely U.S. Voters was conducted on October 6-7, 2015 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

As long as the GOP race remains competitive, Rasmussen Reports will continue tracking Trump’s surprisingly successful early run for the White House in a weekly Friday feature we’re calling Trump Change.

Most Democrats still believe Trump is unlikely to be the GOP nominee. Voters not affiliated with either major party agree by a 49% to 43% margin.

Men continue to like Trump’s chances for the nomination better than women do.

Most conservative voters think the billionaire developer is likely to win the nomination. Most moderates and liberals view that outcome as unlikely.

Belief that Trump will get the nomination is much higher among voters who disapprove of the job President Obama is doing.

Supporters of bringing more refugees here and of granting amnesty to those in this country illegally, another position Trump opposes, often note that the United States is a nation of immigrants. But only 16% of all voters believe America’s origins require it to take in more refugees than any other nation

Trump has made several comments about the physical appearance of a few of his rivals. One-in-four voters (25%) say a candidate’s physical appearance is at least somewhat important to how they vote, but that includes only seven percent (7%) who consider it Very Important. For 74%, physical appearance is not important to their vote, with 34% who say it is Not At All Important. Still, these findings show voters put slightly more importance on physical appearance than they did last year.

Forget the hype. Next Tuesday’s Democratic presidential debate is already a win for Hillary Clinton.

Just 26% of voters think the country is heading in the right direction.

Additional information from this survey and a full demographic breakdown are available to Platinum Members only.

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