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Trump Change: Trump’s Chances Continue To Improve

Donald Trump’s message still appears to resonate with Republican voters with his perceived chances to clinch the GOP presidential nomination up for the second straight survey. Belief among all voters that he will be the nominee is also up to its highest level since mid-October.

The latest Rasmussen Reports weekly Trump Change survey finds that 68% of Likely Republican Voters believe Trump is likely to be their party’s nominee next year, up from 53% two weeks ago and the highest finding since late October. This includes 32% who now think Trump is Very Likely to win the GOP race, up from 24% in the previous survey and also the highest finding in over a month. Twenty-seven percent (27%) of GOP voters still say Trump is unlikely to win the nomination, but just seven percent (7%) consider it Not At All Likely. (To see survey question wording, click here.) 

Overall belief among Republican voters that the billionaire developer is likely to win the nomination spiked to a high of 74% in late October but had generally run in the mid-50s for most weeks since Rasmussen Reports began the weekly survey in mid-August. His perceived chances rose over 60% in mid-November just after the terrorist attacks in Paris.

Among all likely voters, 56% think Trump is the likely Republican nominee, including 23% who say it’s Very Likely. These findings, too, are the highest measured since October. Thirty-seven percent (37%) consider a Trump nomination unlikely, with 15% who say he is Not At All Likely to win.

Trump appears to be benefiting from his tough talk against radical Islamic terrorism following the tragedies in Paris and now in San Bernardino, California. Trump says he supports government tracking of Muslims living in the United States. In a survey taken before the San Bernardino incident, a plurality of Republican voters - and one-third of all voters - supported government monitoring of individual Muslims.

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The survey of 1,000 Likely U.S. Voters was conducted on December 2-3, 2015 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

As long as the GOP race remains competitive, Rasmussen Reports will continue tracking Trump’s surprisingly successful run for the White House in a weekly Friday feature we’re calling Trump Change. We also release the Hillary Meter monthly to regularly update public perceptions of the Democratic frontrunner on her march to the White House.

Voters are evenly divided when asked whether Trump or Democratic frontrunner Hillary Clinton would do a better job keeping the country safe from radical Islamic terrorism. Predictably, almost equal numbers of Democrats (76%) and Republicans (73%) express more confidence in the presidential contender from their respective party.

Fifty-five percent (55%) of voters not affiliated with either major political party think it’s likely Trump will win the GOP nomination, including 19% who say that’s Very Likely. That’s also a slight improvement from the previous survey.

While fewer than half of Democrats (47%) think Trump is likely to be nominated, that’s the highest finding yet.

Following the attacks in Paris, Trump characterized President Obama's decision to let 10,000 Syrian refugees into the United States next year as the “ultimate Trojan horse”, referring to the potential for terrorists to enter the country with them. Most voters share Trump's national security concerns and oppose allowing Syrian refugees to come here.

Trump is still leading the pack in Rasmussen Reports’ most recent look at the Republican presidential primary race following last month’s primary debate.

Additional information from this survey and a full demographic breakdown are available to Platinum Members only.

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The survey of 1,000 Likely U.S. Voters was conducted on December 2-3, 2015 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

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