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Hillary Meter

Hillary Meter: Voters Say Clinton Still On Course for Nomination

Friday, May 13, 2016

The media may portray Bernie Sanders as a continuing political threat to Hillary Clinton, but voters aren’t buying: They remain overwhelmingly convinced that Clinton is the likely Democratic presidential nominee for 2016.

The latest Rasmussen Reports monthly Hillary Meter finds that 92% of Likely Democratic Voters believe Clinton is likely to win their party’s nomination, with 62% who say it’s Very Likely. That’s unchanged from a month ago and ties the highest number of Democrats who consider Clinton’s nomination Very Likely in monthly surveys since last July. (To see survey question wording, click here.) 

Among all likely voters, 84% think Clinton is likely to be the nominee, including 57% who say it’s Very Likely. The overall finding is unchanged from April, but the number of voters who say her nomination is Very Likely is a new high.

Just seven percent (7%) of Democrats and 15% of all voters think a Clinton nomination is Not Very or Not At All Likely.

Sixty percent (60%) of voters think Clinton is likely to win the presidency, compared to 53% who see Republican Donald Trump as the likely victor instead. These findings include 28% who say Clinton and Trump are Very Likely to win.

Rasmussen Reports’ most recent national matchup of the two, posted 10 days ago, found Trump edging slightly ahead of Clinton. Other polling firms have confirmed the tightening of the race since then.

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The survey of 1,000 Likely Voters was conducted on May 11-12, 2016 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Most Republicans welcomed Ted Cruz’s and John Kasich’s dropping out of the race against Trump for the GOP presidential nomination. Democrats aren’t so eager for Sanders to quit

Most voters (54%) still view Clinton as a political liberal. Only seven percent (7%) think she’s a conservative, while 32% describe the former secretary of State as a moderate. These findings are little changed from past surveying.

Within her own party, however, only 32% see Clinton as a liberal. Nine percent (9%) of Democrats feel she is a conservative, while most (52%) call her a moderate.

Voters in nearly every demographic category overwhelmingly believe Clinton is likely to win the Democratic nomination.

But voters under 40, an area of potential vulnerability for the former first lady, are less certain than their elders that she will be the nominee.

Fifty-two percent (52%) of Republicans and 58% of voters not affiliated with either major political party say Clinton is Very Likely to win the nomination.

Sanders’ unexpected success in the 2016 presidential campaign has exposed the growing rift between the Democratic party establishment and the party’s more progressive wing. Still, Democratic voters are more likely than voters in general to think their party should identify with Clinton rather than Sanders.

Democrats see Clinton as more qualified than Sanders to be president. Democrats also trust Clinton more on key issues.

The likelihood of a brokered convention for either political party is extremely slim now, but Democrats now tend to support their party’s delegates voting for whomever they want at the party’s convention.

Additional information from this survey and a full demographic breakdown are available to Platinum Members only.

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