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North Carolina: Romney 49%, Obama 44%

Thursday, August 02, 2012

Mitt Romney has a five-point edge over President Obama in the battleground state of North Carolina. 

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Voters in the Tar Heel State finds Romney with 49% support, while the president earns 44% of the vote.  Three percent (3%) prefer some other candidate, and another four percent (4%) are undecided.  (To see survey question wording, click here.)

This moves the state from Toss-Up Status to Leans Romney in the Rasmussen Reports Electoral College Projections.

The economy is the top issue of Election 2012 and, like Americans everywhere, there are deep concerns in North Carolina. Only 11% rate the U.S. economy as good or excellent, while 53% say it’s poor.  Twenty-four percent (24%) say economic conditions in the nation are getting better these days, but a plurality (47%) feel they’re getting worse. 

Just 35% believe the economy will get better if Obama is reelected and Democrats regain control of Congress. Forty-eight percent (48%) believe it will get worse.  If Romney is elected and Republicans win control of Congress, 40% believe it will get better and 41% say worse. For both men, the North Carolina numbers are a bit more optimistic than the national average.

Fifty-two percent (52%) of voters in the state say, generally speaking, entrepreneurs who start small businesses do the most to create jobs and economic growth.  Twenty-two percent (22%) give big business the credit while 7% point to state and local governments. Only 5% give primary credit to the federal government.

Furthermore, 62% say small businesses provides a more valuable service to the community than big businesses, state and local governments and federal governments.

Seventy-three percent  (73%) believe people who start small businesses are primarily responsible for the success or failure of their own businesses.  An overwhelming majority (81%) say small business owners work harder than the typical worker does.  North Carolina voters’ perceptions of small businesses are comparable to the views of voters nationwide.

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The survey of 500 Likely Voters in North Carolina was conducted on August 1, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Romney has consistently held a modest lead in North Carolina. In June, he was up three and in May he was up eight. The Obama campaign appears to be seriously contesting the state and will hold the Democratic convention in Charlotte. The Romney team appears to discount concerns that Obama could win the state again. In 2008, Obama became the first Democrat to win North Carolina’s Electoral College votes since Jimmy Carter in 1976.

Fifty percent (50%) of North Carolina voters have at least a somewhat favorable opinion of Romney, while 47% view him unfavorably.  These numbers include Very Favorable reviews from 23% and Very Unfavorable marks from 30%. 

As for the president, 47% of voters in the state at least somewhat approve of the job he is doing.  Fifty-one percent (51%), however, disapprove of Obama’s job performance.  That includes Strong Approval from 31% and Strong Disapproval from 46%, giving the president an Approval Index of -15, better than the level measured among Likely Voters nationwide.  Romney leads Obama among males, 52% to 37%, but trails the president among females 51% to 46%.  Younger voters tend to support the president while their elders favor Romney.

Among voters not affiliated with either of the two major political parties, Romney holds a 59% to 29% advantage over the incumbent.

Looking at other states around the country, Romney leads in Indiana, Missouri and North Dakota.  Obama is ahead in New Hampshire, Nevada, Michigan and Pennsylvania. The race is a toss-up in Florida, Iowa, Colorado, Wisconsin, Ohio and Virginia.

Additional information from this survey and a full demographic breakdown are available to Platinum Members only.   

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