March 26, 2026
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE
— Because the presidential party usually loses ground in the House in midterms, it is also the case that they typically flip only a handful of seats from the non-presidential party in such elections.
— Still, Republicans have a decent chance to flip a larger-than-average number of Democratic-held seats in 2026, mainly because of redistricting.
— Beyond seats affected by redistricting, though, history and other factors suggest Republicans will have a hard time significantly cutting into Democratic districts unaffected by redistricting.
— We are moving 11 ratings this week, all in current Democratic-held districts and all in favor of Democrats.
— Democrats remain favored to win the House majority this year, although today’s changes do not impact the overall House math much.