While Russia was the first country to challenge President-elect Obama with a threat to deploy new missiles facing Europe, most U.S. voters expect terrorists or Iran to provide the new president’s first international test in office.

Twenty-seven percent (27%) say terrorists are likely to test Obama first, while 26% say Iran is more likely to do so, according to a new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey.

Russia is the choice of 15% of voters. Seven percent (7%) say North Korea is likely to be Obama’s first international test, and six percent (6%) say it will be China. Nearly one-out-of-five voters (18%) are undecided.

Thirty-one percent (31%) of men expect Iran to test Obama first, while 32% of women think terrorists are the more likely culprits. Republicans by four points give the edge to terrorists over Iran, but Democrats and unaffiliated voters are evenly divided between the two.

A plurality of voters (43%) do not believe the United States should stop its plan to deploy elements of an anti-missile shield in Poland and the Czech Republic despite Russia’s threat. Twenty percent (20%) say we should stop, and 38% are undecided.

Half of male voters (50%) say the United States should not stop its plans, compared to 36% of women. But nearly half of female voters (46%) are undecided.

Fifty-seven percent (57%) of Republicans think the United States should go ahead with deployment of the anti-missile system, but Democrats are evenly divided on which course to take. But 43% of Democrats aren’t sure what to do. Unaffiliated voters by a 32-point margin also think the plans should go forward, but again there is a sizable chunk of those voters who are undecided.

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Vice President-elect Joseph Biden, the chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, made news in a mid-October campaign speech when he said that Obama would be tested with an international crisis within his first six months in the White House. In a Rasmussen Reports survey following those remarks, 38% of voters were Very Concerned that such a crisis would take place in that time frame. Obama dismissed Biden’s remarks, saying his running mate was prone to “rhetorical flourishes.”

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Approval Index for Monday shows Obama enjoying his highest ratings yet at +20. That’s up 12 points since the night after the election (see trends).

In a sharply worded speech the day after Obama’s election, Russian President Dimitri Medvedev threatened to aim new missiles at Europe if the United States went ahead with plans to deploy the anti-missile defense shield in eastern Europe.

However, Medvedev, in Washington this past weekend for the global economic summit, backed away from those comments and is expected to meet with Obama early in his administration.

Forty-three percent (43%) of voters say the U.S. relationship with Russia to improve with Obama in the White House. Twenty-six percent (26%) say the relationship will get worse, while 13% think it will stay the same. Seventeen percent (17%) aren’t sure.

Investors are slightly more optimistic about U.S.-Russian relations than the average voter. The level of optimism also rises with income level.

In a survey right after the election, 47% said Obama will do a good or excellent job handling national security issues. But 34% expect the Democrat to do a poor job on national security.

Russia, fueled by record oil profits, has been increasingly belligerent in recent months, but now with the precipitous drop in the price of oil, it is battling serious economic problems like much of the rest of the world.

Only 13% of voters still regard America’s longtime Cold War adversary as an enemy. Seven percent (7%) say Russia is an ally, while 77% see it as somewhere in between. Just three percent (3%) are undecided.

These numbers are consistent with the findings in a survey at the time of Russia’s invasion into neighboring Georgia in mid-August.

Fifty-nine percent (59%) of voters say they have followed at least somewhat closely news stories dealing with Russia’s complaints about the location of the anti-missile system. Just 10% say they have not followed news stories about the contentious issue at all.

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