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War on Terror Update
Spike in War on Terror Confidence Fades
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Following the election of Barack Obama on November 4, confidence in the War on Terror soared to all-time highs, but that spike in confidence has disappeared. Confidence is back to pre-election levels, still near the highest levels recorded in the past five years.

A similar spike in voter confidence about the war on terror occurred following the Democratic victories in Election 2006. That spike also faded very quickly.

Now just 52% of voters say the United States and its allies are winning the war on terror, according to a new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey. Twenty percent (20%) say the terrorists are winning, and 21% say neither is on top. Seven percent (7%) are undecided.

Just last week, voter confidence in the War on Terror reached its highest level ever, with 60% saying the United States and its allies are winning. But voters were not quite as confident as they were before the election that Obama will bring the troops home from Iraq within his first term.

Voter confidence began rising in August. The 52% finding matches a survey released on Election Day.

Sixty percent (60%) of men and 44% of women say the United States and its allies are winning.

While 73% of Republicans think America is winning, just 35% of Democrats agree.

In a survey earlier this week, most U.S. voters said terrorists or Iran will provide the new president’s first international test in office.

New numbers on voter confidence in Obama’s ability to handle national security matters will be released at 3 pm today.

(Want a free daily e-mail update? Sign up now. If it's in the news, it's in our polls).

Nearly half of voters (48%) say the United States is safer today than it was before the September 11, 2001, terrorist attacks, but 35% disagree. Seventeen percent (17%) remain undecided. This is a four-point fall in confidence from the record set in last week’s survey.

With a Democrat going into the White House and increased majorities for the party in both the House and Senate, 51% of Democrats still feel the country is not as safe as it was seven years ago. Seventy-four percent (74%) of Republicans and 48% of unaffiliated voters say it is safer.

Forty-six percent (46%) say the situation in Iraq will get better in the next six months, while 21% say it will get worse. Twenty-three percent (23%) expect it to be about the same. These numbers are largely unchanged from a week ago.

Voters are closely divided on whether the war in Iraq will be seen as a success or failure in the long-term. But nearly one-quarter (24%) are undecided.

Men are more confident that it will be judged a success; a plurality of women think it will be regarded as a failure.

While 59% of Democrats say the war will be seen as a failure, 58% of GOP voters say history will view it as a success. Unaffiliated voters by five points say it will be regarded as a success.

Confidence in President Bush’s handling of the war in Iraq also has fallen. Now 29% rate his performance good or excellent, while 50% say it is poor. Last week, 35% said the president was doing a good or excellent job, and 44% a poor one. Still the new numbers are the president’s second highest reading in a month.

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Rasmussen Reports is an electronic publishing firm specializing in the collection, publication, and distribution of public opinion polling information.

The Rasmussen Reports ElectionEdge™ Premium Service for Election 2008 offers the most comprehensive public opinion coverage ever provided for a Presidential election.

Scott Rasmussen, president of Rasmussen Reports, has been an independent pollster for more than a decade.


Who is Winning the War on Terror?

Dates

US/Allies

Terrorists

Nov 18-19

52%

20%

Nov 11

60%

15%

Nov 4

52%

19%

Oct 6

52%

19%

Sep 29

55%

21%

Sept 8

54%

20%

Sept 1

47%

20%

Aug 25

54%

19%

Aug 18

50%

19%

Aug 11

51%

20%

Aug 4

48%

21%

Jul 28

50%

21%

Jul 21

51%

16%

Jul 14

48%

20%

Jul 7

46%

23%

Jun 30

42%

26%

Jun 9

43

24

Jun 2

42

24

May 9-10

39

27

Apr 16-17

45

24

Mar 24-25

47

20

Feb 29-Mar 2

46

22

Feb 1-3

49

23

Jan 2-3, 2008

43

25

Nov 26-27

47

24

Oct 22-23

43

30

Sep 21-23

39

28

Aug 20-21

39

32

Jul 18-19

36

36

Jun 15-17

36

32

Jun 4-5

40

32

May 7-8

36

34

Apr 11-12

37

33

Mar 19-20

38

34

Feb 21-22

36

36

Jan 29-30

37

32

Jan 3-4, 2007

33

36

For history prior to January 2007, click here.

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