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Generic Congressional Ballot

Democratic Lead Grows on Generic Congressional Ballot

Wednesday, August 15, 2018

Democrats continue to lead Republicans on the latest Rasmussen Reports Generic Congressional Ballot, but after two weeks of a tightening race, Democrats have expanded their lead.

The latest telephone and online survey finds that 48% of Likely U.S. Voters would choose the Democratic candidate if the elections for Congress were held today. Forty-one percent (41%) would opt for the Republican. Four percent (4%) prefer some other candidate, and eight percent (8%) are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

For two weeks in May, the parties were neck and neck on the Generic Ballot, but the Democrats regained their lead in early June and have maintained it since then. In early July, Democrats led by eight, their largest lead since January. 

Rasmussen Reports is updating the Generic Congressional Ballot findings weekly on Wednesdays at 8:30 a.m. Eastern until the midterm elections in November.

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The survey of 2,500 Likely Voters was conducted on August 5-9, 2018 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 2 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

In the U.S. House of Representatives, all 435 seats are on November’s ballot. Republicans now have a 47-seat majority in the House, so Democrats would need to take away 24 GOP seats to gain control. The big problem is that all but about 50 of the seats are shoo-ins for the party that now holds them.

In the U.S. Senate, 32 seats are up for grabs this November, but 23 of them are now held by Democrats. So Democrats need to hold all 23 of those and pick up two of the Republican seats to win control of the Senate. 

The Declaration of Independence says that governments derive their authority from the consent of the governed, but few voters think the American government today has the consent of its governed.

Democrats want President Trump to sit down with Special Counsel Robert Mueller’s investigative team for an interview; Republicans don’t. But both sides agree that a Trump interview is unlikely to bring Mueller’s probe to a close

Additional information from this survey and a full demographic breakdown are available to Platinum Members only.

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To learn more about our methodology, click here.