Another Democratic senator may be at-risk in 2010. Arkansas' Blanche Lambert Lincoln trails all four of her leading Republican challengers in the first Rasmussen Reports Election 2010 survey in the state.

Lincoln fails to get 50% of the vote in any of the match-ups, and any incumbent who falls short of that level is considered vulnerable. In three of the match-ups, however, she is virtually tied with the challengers at this time.

The two-term senator, who was reelected with 54% of the vote in 2004, is perhaps made more vulnerable by her seat on the Senate Finance Committee which is now wrestling with the national health care reform plan, a measure which is highly unpopular in Arkansas. Just today she voted against including in the bill the controversial “public option” being pushed by liberal senators in her party.

State Senator Gilbert Baker runs best against Lincoln so far, beating her by eight points – 47% to 39%. Five percent (5%) like some other candidate, with eight percent (8%) undecided.

State Senator Minority Leader Kim Hendren beats Lincoln 44% to 41%, with five percent (5%) favoring another candidate and 10% undecided.

Curtis Coleman, a private businessman with ties to former Arkansas governor and presidential hopeful Mike Huckabee, holds a 43% to 41% lead over the incumbent. Five percent (5%) prefer some other candidate, and 11% are undecided.

Just as close is Tom Cox, head of the Arkansas T.E.A. Party, who leads Lincoln 43% to 40%, with six percent (6%) favoring another candidate and 11% undecided.

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Twenty-six percent (26%) of Arkansas voters have a very favorable opinion of Lincoln, while 28% view her very unfavorably. Just four percent (4%) don’t have an opinion of the incumbent senator.

Very favorables and very unfavorables for all four GOP challengers are in single digits, and over one-third of the state’s voters don’t know any of them well enough to even venture a soft opinion about them.

At this point in a campaign, Rasmussen Reports considers the number of people with a strong opinion more significant than the total favorable/unfavorable numbers.

Just 30% of Arkansas voters favor the health care reform plan proposed by President Obama and congressional Democrats, while 67% oppose it. While 20% strongly favor the plan, 52% strongly oppose it. These numbers are much higher than those found nationally even as opposition nationwide hits a new high.
Fifty-eight percent (58%) expect the quality of health care to get worse if the plan passes. Nineteen percent (19%) believe it will get better, and 14% say it will stay the same.

Fifty-six percent (56%) say the cost of health care will go up if the plan becomes law, but 16% say costs will go down as the plan’s sponsors contend. Twenty percent (20%) think there will be no change.

Seventy-three percent (73%) of Arkansas voters anticipate that the cost of the health care plan will increase the federal budget deficit, and 81% think it is likely that taxes will be raised on the middle class to pay for the plan if it passes. Sixty-seven percent (67%) say a middle-class tax hike is very likely.

Ten percent (10%) say the U.S. economy is good or excellent. Forty-six percent (46%) say it is poor. Thirty-one percent (31%) think the economy is getting better, while 45% say it’s getting worse. Eighteen percent (18%0 see no change.

John McCain carried Arkansas by 20 points over Barack Obama last November, and just 37% of voters in the state now approve of Obama’s job performance as president, with 28% who strongly approve. Sixty-two percent (62%) disapprove, including 52% who strongly disapprove. This again is much more negative than Obama’s job approval ratings in the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll.

But 69% approve of the job Democratic Governor Mike Beebe is doing, including 27% who strongly approve. Only 30% disapprove of his performance, with eight percent (8%) who strongly disapprove.

Rasmussen Reports has begun surveying potential 2010 Senate match-ups and has released findings from California, Colorado, Connecticut, Iowa, Missouri, Nevada, New Hampshire, New York, North Carolina and Ohio. Later this week, we will release numbers from Senate match-ups in Delaware, Kentucky and Louisiana.

Rasmussen Reports also has released recent data on the 2009 governor’s race in New Jersey and Virginia along with the 2010 governor’s races in Arizona, California, Colorado, Iowa, New York and Ohio. A Virginia update will be released later this week.

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