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Election 2010: Michigan Governor
Michigan Governor: Anybody’s Race At This Point
Thursday, February 11, 2010
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The race to replace Michigan’s term-limited Governor Jennifer Granholm is wide-open, with the top Republican candidates having an early edge over their likeliest Democratic rivals. The most recent Rasmussen Reports Election 2010 telephone survey of likely voters in the state finds GOP hopefuls Mike Bouchard, Mike Cox and Peter Hoekstra earning 40% to 45% of the vote in all but one of the match-ups against each of their potential opponents. Democrats Virg Bernero, Andy Dillon, Denise Ilitch and Alma Wheeler Smith pick up anywhere from 28% to 36% of the vote in those match-ups. Hoekstra, a longtime U.S. congressman, runs slightly stronger among the GOP contenders. Among the Democrats, Dillon, the speaker of the Michigan House of Representatives, runs most competitively. Against Cox, the state attorney general, in fact, Dillon runs virtually even, with 36% of the vote to his GOP foe’s 35%. (See toplines and crosstabs.) Both parties will pick their candidates in August 3 primaries. (Want a free daily e-mail update? If it's in the news, it's in our polls). Rasmussen Reports updates are also available on Twitter or Facebook. The numbers from Michigan at this early stage of the campaign appear to be largely about voter unhappiness over the continuing bad economy and the governing Democrats’ seeming inability to do much about it so far. No matter who the Democratic candidate is and which Republican he or she is matched against, the findings are virtually the same. While Michigan voters were generally in favor of the bailout of General Motors and Chrysler, both based in their state, they generally agreed with the rest of the country that the government should get out of the auto business as soon as possible. Voters in the state didn’t like the bank bailout any more than those nationally. Thirty-seven percent (37%) of Michigan voters currently rate their personal finances as good or excellent, while 21% say their finances are poor. However, nearly half the state’s voters (47%) expect their finances to get worse over the next year. Only 19% think they’ll get better. Sixty-two percent (62%) are angry at the current policies of the federal government, with 42% who are very angry. While this is a sizable number, it’s slightly lower than the findings nationally. Fifty-nine percent (59%) agree than neither Democratic nor Republican political leaders have a good understanding of what is needed today. Sixty-two percent (62%) say it would be better for the country if most incumbents in Congress were not reelected in November. The good news for Democrats is that the president remains more popular in Michigan than he is nationally in the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll. Obama won 57% of the vote in Michigan over John McCain in November 2008, and 53% of voters in the state approve of his performance as president. Forty-six percent (46%) disapprove. But those numbers include 29% who strongly approve of Obama’s performance and 39% who strongly disapprove. It’s a different story when Michigan voters are asked about the state’s Democratic governor. Thirty-five percent (35%) approve of the job Granholm is doing, with 15% who strongly approve. Sixty-three percent (63%) disapprove of her performance, including 42% who strongly disapprove. Voter unhappiness with Granholm in part prompted Lieutenant Governor John Cherry’s surprise announcement at the beginning of the year that he would not seek the governorship. A Rasmussen Reports survey of Michigan voters in December found Cherry, then considered the leading Democrat in the race, in an uphill battle against all three leading Republicans. Among the GOP hopefuls, Bouchard. the sheriff of Oakland County, is viewed very favorably by seven percent (7%) of Michigan voters and very unfavorably by six percent (6%). For Cox, very favorables total 14% and very unfavorables 13%. Eighteen percent (18%) have a very favorable opinion of Hoekstra, while 13% view him very unfavorably. On the Democratic side, Bernero, the mayor of Lansing, is seen very favorably by six percent (6%) and very unfavorably by 11%. Six percent (6%) have a very favorable view of Dillon, while 13% view him very unfavorably. Very favorables for Ilitch, a Detroit businesswoman and lawyer, total 17%, her very unfavorables 14%. For Wheeler Smith, a member of the Michigan House, very favorables are 12% and very unfavorables 19%. At this point in a campaign, Rasmussen Reports considers the number of people with a strong opinion more significant than the total favorable/unfavorable numbers. Nationally, Michigan in recent years has been viewed as a reliable Democratic state, having gone for that party’s candidate in the last five presidential elections. Both U.S. senators are Democrats, as are two-thirds of the state’s congressional representatives. On the state level, however, key offices, including the governorship have seesawed back and forth between the two parties. Rasmussen Reports has released recent polls on the 2010 governor's races in Arizona, California, Colorado, Massachusetts, Minnesota, Nevada, New Hampshire, New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania and South Carolina. Please sign up for the Rasmussen Reports daily e-mail update (it’s free) or follow us on Twitter or Facebook. Let us keep you up to date with the latest public opinion news. See survey questions and toplines. Crosstabs are available to Premium Members only. Rasmussen Reports is an electronic publishing firm specializing in the collection, publication, and distribution of public opinion polling information. The Rasmussen Reports Election Edge™ Premium Service offers the most comprehensive public opinion coverage available anywhere. Scott Rasmussen, president of Rasmussen Reports, has been an independent pollster for more than a decade.
Michigan Survey of 500 Likely Voters
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