Michigan has been reliably Democratic in recent years, but right now Lieutenant Governor John Cherry faces an uphill battle against his leading Republican opponents in the state’s 2010 race for governor.

A new Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of likely Michigan voters finds Cherry, the top Democrat in the race, trailing two of his potential GOP rivals by double digits and a third by five points.

Congressman Peter Hoekstra is the strongest Republican hopeful at this juncture, beating Cherry by 14 points – 46% to 32%. Six percent (6%) prefer another candidate, and 16% are undecided.

In a match-up with Oakland County Sheriff Mike Bouchard, Cherry is the loser 42% to 32%. Again, six percent (6%) like someone else in the race. Undecideds rise to 20%.

The race is slightly closer when the lieutenant governor is pitted against state Attorney General Mike Cox. In that match-up, Cox wins 39% to 34%. Nine percent (9%) favor some other candidate, and 17% are not sure whom they’ll vote for.

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In a survey in October, Michigan voters gave Republicans an even chance of regaining the governor’s mansion next year: 37% said they would vote for an unspecified Republican candidate for governor versus 36% who favored an unnamed Democrat. Twenty-seven percent (27%) were undecided.

All three GOP hopefuls beat Cherry handily among male voters and voters not affiliated with either major political party. The contest is more competitive among women voters.

Both parties hold their primaries on August 3.

The Republicans appear to be benefiting from the continuing unpopularity of Democratic Governor Jennifer Granholm and the ongoing national debate over health care.

Michigan voters are evenly divided over the health care plan proposed by President Obama and congressional Democrats. Forty-seven percent (47%) are in favor of it, and 48% are opposed. This is stronger support for the plan than is found nationally. But even in Michigan, the emotion is on the side of the opponents: While 25% strongly favor the plan, 40% strongly oppose it.

Among those voters strongly in favor of the plan, Cherry defeats all three Republicans with anywhere from 77% to 82% support. Among those strongly opposed to the plan, Hoekstra wins 86% against Cherry, Bouchard 79% and Cox 72%.

Cherry is viewed very favorably by 10% and very unfavorably by 17%.

For Cox, very favorables total 13% and very unfavorables 11%. Twenty-two percent (22%) have a very favorable view of Hoekstra, while nine percent (9%) regard him very unfavorably. Bouchard is seen very favorably by 10%, very unfavorably by nine percent (9%).

At this point in a campaign, Rasmussen Reports considers the number of people with a strong opinion more significant than the total favorable/unfavorable numbers.

Cox is the best-known of the four candidates. Just 20% don’t know enough about him to venture even a soft favorable or unfavorable opinion. Roughly one-out-of-four Michigan voters have no opinion of Cherry, Hoekstra and Bouchard at this point.

Michigan voters are slightly more critical of President Obama’s new strategy for Afghanistan than are voters nationally. In Michigan, 32% favor the plan, but 36% oppose it.

Support for the addition of 30,000 new troops to Afghanistan runs at 50%, while 34% are against the move. Voters here are evenly divided over the president’s timetable for starting to pull out troops in 18 months.

Forty-two percent (42%) rate the president’s performance on Afghanistan as good or excellent. Twenty-seven percent (27%) say it is poor.

Candidate Obama carried Michigan by 16 points – 57% to 41% - in November 2008. Now Michigan voters are more critical. Forty-eight percent (48%) approve of the president’s job performance, while 50% disapprove. But 41% strongly disapprove versus 28% who strongly approve. These numbers are roughly in line with the president’s job approval ratings nationally in the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll.

Perhaps as a reflection of ongoing economic problems, 54% of voters in the state like the idea of a part-time legislature. Only 20% oppose the idea, with 26% not sure.

Thirty-seven percent (37%) of Michigan voters plan to give less to charity this year than they did a year ago. But 63% say they are at least somewhat likely to make a charitable contribution at this time of year.

Just 32% approve of Granholm’s performance as governor, while 66% disapprove. Those who strongly disapprove outnumber those who strongly approve by more than five-to-one – 49% to nine percent (9%). The governor's numbers have been steadily worsening since the spring.

Rasmussen Reports has released recent polls on the 2010 governor’s races in Arizona, California, Colorado, Florida, Georgia, Massachusetts, Minnesota, New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania, South Carolina and Texas.

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