Forty-nine percent (49%) of Massachusetts voters say embattled Governor Deval Patrick should step aside rather than seek reelection next year, even as his chances look slightly better with an
independent candidate in the race.

A new Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in Massachusetts finds that 36% disagree and say the Democratic incumbent should run again. Fifteen percent (15%) are undecided.

Patrick now captures 34% of the vote against either possible Republican challenger, Christy Mihos or Charlie Baker, when newly announced independent candidate Tim Cahill is added to the mix. Mihos earns 23% of the vote in a three-way race. Baker picks up 24% in a contest with Patrick and Cahill.

In both scenarios, Cahill, the state treasurer who was elected as a Democrat but quit the party this summer, gets 23% of the vote and 19% are undecided.

In late August, Patrick trailed Mihos by five points in a two-race race – 40% to 35% - and was virtually tied with Baker. Roughly 10 % were undecided.

But Cahill gains largely at the expense of the Republican candidates, while Patrick’s numbers remain almost unchanged. The fact that the numbers are similar regardless of which Republican is mentioned suggests that the race for now is a referendum on the incumbent rather than a choice between competing alternatives.

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Male voters prefer the Republican candidate in both three-way contests, while women give the edge to Patrick. Among male voters, Patrick and Cahill run basically even.

Patrick picks up 58% of the Democratic vote with Cahill in the race, no matter which Republican is the opponent. Voters not affiliated with either major party give Cahill a slight edge over Patrick, Mihos and Baker.

Fourteen percent (14%) of Bay State voters have a very favorable view of Patrick, while 28% see him very unfavorably. Just two percent (2%) don’t have any opinion of the governor.

Mihos, a businessman who ran for governor as an independent in 2006, is seen very favorably by eight percent (8%) and very unfavorably by 10%. For Baker, a health care executive, very favorables and very unfavorables both total 10%.

Cahill, first elected state treasurer in 2002 and reelected in 2006, is viewed very favorably by eight percent (8%) and very unfavorably by five percent (5%).

At this very early stage of the campaign, Rasmussen Reports considers the very favorable and very unfavorable figures more significant than the overall favorability totals.

All three of Patrick’s challengers, however, have some statewide name-building to do. Thirty-eight percent (38%) don’t know Baker well enough to even venture a soft opinion of him, and 26% and 24% say the same of Cahill and Mihos respectively.

Forty-three percent (43%) approve of Patrick’s job performance as governor, up four points from August, but 56% disapprove. But Massachusetts voters who Strongly Disapprove of the job Patrick is doing outnumber those who Strongly Approve by three-to-one – 36% to 12%.

Five percent (5%) of Massachusetts voters rate the U.S. economy as good or excellent, while 48% say it’s poor. Thirty-six percent (36%) think the economy is getting better, but 37% say it’s getting worse and 21% say it’s staying about the same.

Fifty percent (50%) favor the health care reform plan proposed by President Obama and congressional Democrats, and 46% oppose it. That runs almost exactly opposite voters’ sentiments nationwide. But even in Massachusetts, opponents feel more strongly: 36% Strongly Oppose the plan compared to 29% who Strongly Favor it.

Obama carried Massachusetts over John McCain last November with 62% of the vote. Now, 54% approve of the president’s performance, with 37% who Strongly Approve. Forty-four percent (44%) disapprove of how the president’s doing, including 32% who Strongly Disapprove. This is much better than Obama’s job approval ratings nationally in the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll.

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