The nation’s economy has taken its toll on incumbent governors across the country, and Iowa Governor Chet Culver is no exception. Add to that the difficult political environment for Democrats at the moment, and Culver’s potential vulnerability becomes clear.

The first Rasmussen Reports Election 2010 telephone survey of the Iowa governor’s race shows Culver trailing badly in a match-up with one of his predecessors and running even with a lesser-known challenger.

Terry Branstad, now president of Des Moines University, leads Culver 54% to 34%. Branstad, a Republican, was the youngest governor in Iowa history and served longer than anybody else, from 1983 to 1999. He is rumored to be seriously considering a return to the job after earlier saying he would not run.

If Branstad did enter the ring, it’s likely that his numbers would shift. It’s much easier for people to have fond memories of a former governor than it is of an active candidate. Branstad also would face significant primary challenges for the GOP nomination.

In a match-up with another Republican, Bob Vander Plaats, Culver trails by just four points, 43% to 39%. Vander Plaats is a businessman who ran unsuccessfully for lieutenant governor in 2006, the year Culver was first elected.

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Data released yesterday showed that Iowa GOP Senator Charles Grassley has a solid lead over his likeliest Democratic challenger in an early preview of next year's contest.

Culver should be pleased that his reelection date is still 14 months away. While governors nationwide are receiving low job approval scores, only New Jersey’s Jon Corzine is up for reelection this year. Corzine currently trails by seven points as he seeks to keep his job. In Virginia, the other major 2009 race, Republican Robert McDonnell has a very slight advantage in a race that has become too close to call.

In Iowa, 43% of voters approve of the way Culver has handled his job. Fifty-three percent (53%) disapprove.

President Obama, after winning the state with 54% of the vote last November, receives approval from 48% and disapproval from 49%. Just 41% of Iowa voters favor the health care plan proposed by the president and congressional Democrats.

On a personal basis, 17% of voters have a Very Favorable opinion of Culver and 27% hold a Very Unfavorable view. The numbers for Branstad are 28% Very Favorable and 13% Very Unfavorable. Vander Plaats gets Very Favorable reviews from 14% and Very Unfavorable reviews from another 14%.

At this point in a campaign, Rasmussen Reports considers the number of people with a strong opinion more significant than the total favorable/unfavorable numbers.

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