State Treasurer Dean Martin for now looks like the Republican who’s offering the biggest challenge to likely Democratic candidate Terry Goddard in Arizona’s race for governor.

A new Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of likely Arizona voters finds Martin with a nine-point lead over Goddard, 44% to 35%. In November, the race was a toss-up, with Goddard up by two. Given this match-up, six percent (6%) prefer some other candidate, and fourteen percent (14%) are undecided.

However, incumbent Governor Jan Brewer has improved her position as well. She has pulled to within two points of Goddard and trails just 43% to 41%. In the previous survey, the Democrat had a nine-point lead over the governor, 44% to 35%. Seven percent (7%) like some other candidate, and nine percent (9%) are undecided.

Both Republicans hold double-digit leads on Goddard among male voters. Goddard leads Brewer by 17 points but breaks even with Martin among female voters.

Similarly, Brewer and Goddard are in a near tie among voters not affiliated with either of the major political parties. Martin holds a 10-point lead over Goddard in this group of voters.

Following news that Sarah Palin will campaign for him in Arizona, incumbent John McCain has opened a significant lead over likely opponent J.D. Hayworth in the state’s Republican Senate Primary campaign.

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Since he has expressed little or no public interest in the governor's race, Maricopa County Sheriff Joe Arpaio is not in the latest survey, although in November he was by far the favorite among Republican Primary voters in the state and in a match-up with Goddard.

Like many Republican candidates nationally, both GOP gubernatorial contenders in Arizona are likely to be benefiting from opposition to the national health care plan and continued voter concerns about the poor economy.

Roughly the same as voter sentiments nationwide, just 38% of Arizona voters favor the health care plan, but 59% oppose it. While 24% Strongly favor the plan, more than twice as many (53%) Strongly Oppose it.

Only six percent (6%) of Arizona voters say the economy is good or excellent. Fifty-six percent (56%) rate it as poor. While 29% think the economy is getting better, 42% say it’s worsening.

Twenty-two percent (22%) of voters in the state have a very favorable view of Goddard, while 13% regard him very unfavorably.

Brewer, who has been wrestling for months with a state budget crisis, is viewed very favorably by just seven percent (7%) and very unfavorably by 23%. For Martin, who formally declared his candidacy last week, very favorables total 15% and very unfavorables eight percent (8%).

At this point in a campaign, Rasmussen Reports considers the number of people with strong opinions more significant than the total favorable/unfavorable numbers.

Brewer, as Arizona’s secretary of state, became governor last January when Janet Napolitano moved to Washington to serve as secretary of Homeland Security. But battles over the state budget have taken a toll on her popularity and prompted challenges within her own party.

Thirty-seven percent (37%) approve of the job Brewer is doing as governor, while 60% disapprove. Those numbers include only seven percent (7%) who Strongly Approve versus 29% who Strongly Disapprove. These findings are little changed from November.

Twenty-four percent (24%) say Brewer has done a good or excellent job handling the state budget crisis, but 38% think she’s done a poor job. Fifty-two percent (52%) favor her idea of a temporary one-cent sales tax increase to help meet the state’s large budget deficit. Thirty-six percent (36%) oppose a sales tax hike, even for the short-term.

Sixty-six percent (66%) of Arizona voters say illegal immigrants put a strain on the state budget.

Seventy-three percent (73%) believe the bigger problem in Arizona is not taxpayer’s unwillingness to pay enough in taxes but is instead the reluctance of politicians to control government spending. Only 20% blame taxpayers more.

Fifty-eight percent (58%) in Arizona still say buying a home is the best investment families can male. That’s roughly comparable to findings nationally.

Following the Christmas Day terrorist attempt to blow up a U.S. airliner, 71% in Arizona say another terrorist attack in the United States is likely in the next year. Sixty-eight percent (68%) favor the use of full-body scanners at airports.

Native son John McCain carried Arizona over Barack Obama 54% to 45% in the 2008 presidential election. Forty-three percent (43%) now approve of the job Obama is doing, with 30% who Strongly Approve. Fifty-seven percent (57%) disapprove of how the president is doing his job, including 50% who Strongly Disapprove. This is roughly in line with Obama’s job approval ratings nationally in the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll.

Rasmussen Reports also has released data on the 2010 governor’s races in California, Colorado, Florida, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota, New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania, South Carolina and Texas.

In 2008, Rasmussen Reports projected nationally that Obama would defeat John McCain by a 52% to 46% margin. Obama won 53% to 46%. Four years earlier, Rasmussen Reports projected the national vote totals for both George W. Bush and John Kerry within half-a-percentage-point.

In Arizona during the 2008 campaign, Rasmussen Reports polling showed John McCain winning the state by a 51% to 45% margin. McCain defeated Obama 54% to 45%. In the 2006 Arizona governor’s race, Rasmussen polling showed Janet Napolitano defeating Len Munsil 58% to 37%. Napolitano won 63% to 35%. In the 2006 race for U.S. Senate, Rasmussen polling showed Jon Kyl leading Jim Pederson by nine, 51% to 42%. Kyl won by nine, 53% to 44%.

See all Rasmussen Reports 2008 state results for president, Senate and governor. See 2006 results for Senate and governor. See 2004 state results for president.

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