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Washington Senate: Cantwell 48%, McGavick 37%
Incumbent’s Ratings Slide Reversed
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On the heels of her campaign’s first statewide television ad campaign, Democratic Senator Maria Cantwell’s poll numbers have improved for the first time in months. Cantwell now leads challenger Mike McGavick (R) by 11 percentage points, 48% to 37%. That’s up from a four point lead in June.

The ratings reversal comes after six previous polls showed Cantwell’s numbers steadily falling. The latest Rasmussen Reports election poll of 500 likely voters was taken a week after the launch of the 30-second television spot, “First,” which touts Cantwell’s accomplishments on behalf of Washington state’s families.

Cantwell’s favorability now stands at 56%, a three-point gain from last month’s poll. Her unfavorable rating dipped four points during the same time frame, currently registering at 38%. An equal percentage of voters (21%) view her “very” favorably and “very” unfavorably.

McGavick’s numbers are virtually unchanged since last month’s poll. His favorable rating dropped a point to 45% while his unfavorable rating holds steady at 35%. Twenty-one percent (21%) of those surveyed have yet to form an opinion of the candidate.

Cantwell’s support among her party’s voters also has increased; she now pulls support from 88% of Democrats, up from 82% in June. McGavick’s support from his Republican base remains unchanged at 80%. Cantwell has greatly improved her numbers among unaffiliated voters.

Overall, Washington’s voters rank the economy (24%), the war in Iraq (20%), immigration (14%) and national security (14%) as their most pressing issues. Cantwell leads among those who name the economy, the War in Iraq, and government corruption as their most important issue. McGavick leads among those who see national security, immigration, and same-sex marriage as a top issue.

Looking at the issue of voting, 75% of Washington voters believe that photo identification should be required before people are allowed to cast a ballot. Fifteen percent (15%) disagree and 10% are undecided.

Sixty-three percent (63%) of all voters believe ballots should be printed in English only, while one-third (33%) say bilingual ballots (English and Spanish) are acceptable. This particular issue generates strong opinions among GOP voters: 79% support English-only ballots versus 18% who support English and Spanish. Democrats are fairly evenly divided on the issue. Forty-seven percent (47%) favor English-only ballots and 49% support bilingual ballots.

Fifty-five percent (55%) of voters surveyed agree that the political system is badly broken. Thirty-one percent (31%) disagree and 14% are unsure.

Fifty-eight percent (58%) of Washingtonians disapprove of President Bush’s job performance with 47% indicating strong disapproval.

Crosstabs are available for Premium Members.

Rasmussen Reports is an electronic publishing firm specializing in the collection, publication, and distribution of public opinion polling information.

The Rasmussen Reports Election Edge™ Premium Service offers the most comprehensive public opinion coverage available anywhere.

Scott Rasmussen, president of Rasmussen Reports, has been an independent pollster for more than a decade.

Survey of 500 Likely Voters
July 17, 2006

Election 2006: Washington Senate

Maria Cantwell (D)

48%

Mike McGavick (R)

37%

Election 2006: Washington Senate
Three-Poll Rolling Average

Surveys

Cantwell

McGavick

May-Jun-Jul

46%

39%

Apr-May-Jun

46%

40%

Mar-Apr-May

48%

39%

Feb-Mar-Apr

49%

37%

Jan-Feb-Mar

50%

36%

Nov-Jan-Feb

51%

36%

Nov 10-Nov 30 Jan

52%

37%

Election 2006: Washington Senate

Date

Cantwell

McGavick

Jul 17

48%

37%

Jun 13

44%

40%

May 8

46%

41%

Apr 4

48%

40%

Mar 7

49%

36%

Feb 2

50%

36%

Jan 2

51%

36%

Nov 30

51%

37%

Nov 11

52%

37%

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