New Jersey has become home to one of the nation’s most unexpected contested Senate races of Election 2006. The latest Rasmussen Reports poll shows the sixth lead change of that race as incumbent U.S. Senator Bob Menendez (D) leads State Senator Tom Kean, Jr. (R) 42% to 39% (see crosstabs). The previous Rasmussen Reports survey of the New Jersey Senate seat race showed Kean in the lead by a single point just a few weeks ago.

When leaners are included in the total, Menendez leads 44% to 40%. It has been amazing that neither candidate has been able to move out of the mid-to-low 40’s in terms of voter support all year.

This race remains a “Toss-Up” in our Senate Balance of Power summary.

Menendez retakes the lead even though New Jersey voters have a relatively low opinion of him. Forty-five percent (45%) view the incumbent favorably while 46% hold the opposite view. These figures include only 9% with a “very favorable” opinion and 22% with a “very unfavorable” view.

In 2005, Garden State Governor Jon Corzine was elected with lower favorability ratings scores than voter support. It will be interesting to see if Menendez follows the same pattern.

Kean earns favorable ratings from 48% of voters and unfavorable ratings from 40%. His “very” positive and negative ratings are even at 12%.

Sixty-three percent (63%) of Menendez’ supporters say they will vote for him because he’s their candidate of choice; 29% will do so simply to vote against Kean. Among Kean’s camp, 56% will vote for him because they favor him and 39% will do so to vote against Menendez.

Fifty-one percent (51%) of those surveyed say they would vote Democrat if their votes could determine control of the Senate. Thirty-five percent (35%) say they’d vote Republican and 13% aren’t sure. Among those not yet committed to either candidate, 49% would vote to put Democrats in control and just 16% would vote for the GOP. That presents a very big hurdle for Kean to overcome.

When asked to rank issues based on their power to influence their votes, 82% of voters say national security issues are “very important,” followed by government corruption (78%), and the economy (67%.)

Fifty-one percent (51%) support bringing the troops home from Iraq within a year. Thirty-two percent (32%) disagree and 18% are undecided.

Interestingly, when asked if they would ever vote for a candidate who would raise taxes, there is not an overwhelming response: 43% say they would vote for such a candidate and 41% say they would not. When the question is changed to ask whether they’d support a candidate who would change Social Security, 46% say they would, 30% say they would not and 24% are undecided.

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