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Michigan
Granholm-DeVos Tied, Stabenow (D) Cruising
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The latest Rasmussen Reports election poll of Michigan's competitive gubernatorial race shows Democratic Governor Jennifer Granholm leading Republican Dick DeVos 44% to 43%, essentially unchanged from a month ago.

Early this year Governor Granholm enjoyed a double-digit lead, but it has been eliminated thanks largely to a steady spate of bad news in the auto industry. An ad campaign by her challenger has also tightened the race, by solidifying GOP support for DeVos (see crosstabs).

The Governor has now been at 44% for three consecutive polls and has never reached the 50% level of support in any of our election polls dating back to November of last year.

The incumbent is viewed favorably by 57% of likely voters, but just 49% approve of the way how she is doing her job. Fifty percent (50%) disapprove of her job performance, including 28% who disapprove "strongly."

DeVos is viewed favorably by 49%, unfavorably by 42%. Those numbers imply high name recognition for a challenger, probably a result of his early advertising.

Meanwhile, Senator Debbie Stabenow (D) continues to pummel three contenders for the GOP nomination.

Our poll a month ago showed that Senator Stabenow's leads over the Republicans had declined a bit, but she has bounced back. She leads Oakland County Sheriff Michael Bouchard 54% to 34%. She leads former Detroit city councilman Rev. Keith Butler 57% to 32%. And she leads Rev. Jerry Zandstra 57% to 32%.

If the state's bad economic news has affected the senator's support, it is not proving to be as heavy a blow as that suffered by the gubernatorial incumbent.

Stabenow is viewed favorably by 63%, unfavorably by 30%. No Republican candidate yet reaches 40% favorable rating. Bouchard comes closest, being viewed favorably by 39%.

Fifty-seven percent (57%) of Michigan voters agree that the U.S. should generally welcome immigrants, except for criminals, security threats and those who would presume upon the welfare system. Three quarters agree that the country should focus on securing the nation's borders and enforcing current law before pursuing further reforms.

A plurality of 43% say all illegal aliens should be forced to leave the country; 40% disagree. In most states, at least a plurality disagree with deporting all illegal aliens. Other surveys have found that, nationally, half of all voters believe illegal immigrants reduce wages for working class Americans.

The rolling average of the last three Rasmussen Reports polls also highlights the tightening of the Governor's race. For the three polls ending in March, Granholm held a four point advantage, 46% to 42%. Now, with the most recent three polls, that edge has nearly disappeared, 44% to 43%.

The three-poll rolling average is less volatile than single poll results and sometimes helps determine whether changing poll results represent real change or merely statistical noise. In this case, it appears that there has been real and significant movement in the race.

Crosstabs are available for Premium Members.

Rasmussen Reports is an electronic publishing firm specializing in the collection, publication, and distribution of public opinion polling information.

The Rasmussen Reports Election Edge™ Premium Service offers the most comprehensive public opinion coverage available anywhere.

Scott Rasmussen, president of Rasmussen Reports, has been an independent pollster for more than a decade.

Survey of 500 Likely Voters
April 25, 2006

Election 2006: Michigan Governor

Jennifer Granholm (D)

44%

Dick DeVos (R)

43%

Election 2006: Michigan Governor
Three-Poll Rolling Average

Surveys

Granholm

DeVos

Feb-Mar-Apr

44%

43%

Jan-Feb-Mar

46%

42%

Nov-Jan-Feb

47%

39%

Election 2006: Michigan Governor

Date

Granholm

DeVos

Apr 26

44%

43%

Mar 20

44%

44%

Feb 9

44%

43%

Jan 15

49%

38%

Nov 29

48%

36%

Election 2006:
Michigan Senate

Debbie Stabenow (D)

54%

Michael Bouchard (R)

34%

Election 2006:
Michigan Senate

Debbie Stabenow (D)

57%

Keith Butler (R)

32%

Election 2006:
Michigan Senate

Debbie Stabenow (D)

57%

Jerry Zandstra (R)

32%

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