Republican Tom Coburn has come from behind and is now leading Democrat Brad Carson in Oklahoma's U.S. Senate race. A Rasmussen Reports survey of 500 Likely Voters shows Coburn with 48% of the vote to 43% for Carson. The telephone survey was conducted October 20.

A month earlier, a Rasmussen Reports survey found Carson ahead by 48% to 44% margin.

The biggest change over the past month is that supporters of President Bush are now more supportive of the Republican Senate candidate. Our September 29 survey found that just 62% of Bush voters were planning to vote for Coburn. That has increased to 75%. In a state the President is likely to win by 20 points or more, that is a huge turnaround.

As a result, we have now moved Oklahoma from Toss-Up to Likely Republican in our Senate Overview.

Prospects for Republicans to retain control of the U.S. Senate have improved in the past couple of weeks. Still, in addition to the Carson-Coburn match-up, there are close races in North Carolina, South Dakota, Colorado, Oklahoma, Alaska, South Carolina, Florida, and Louisiana.

Democrats are likely to pick up a Republican seat in Illinois. Republicans are likely to pick up a Democratic seat in Georgia.

Rasmussen Reports has recently released state Presidential election polls for Alabama, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Florida, Georgia, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Louisiana, Maryland, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New York, North Carolina, Ohio, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Tennessee, West Virginia, Washington, Virginia, and Wisconsin.

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Overall, prospects for Republicans in the Senate have improved over the past couple of weeks. Republican Richard Burr has expanded his lead over Democrat Erskine Bowles in North Carolina.

The latest Rasmussen Reports survey shows Burr with 49% of the vote and Democrat Erskine Bowles with 45%. Burr leads by nine points among men and the candidates are tied among women.

The survey of 500 Likely Voters was conducted Monday, October 20, 2004. Our previous survey, conducted two weeks earlier found Burr leading by just two percentage points, 47% to 45%.

Just 47% of North Carolina voters now have a favorable opinion of Bowles. That's down from 53% in the earlier survey. Fifty-four percent (54%) have a favorable opinion of Burr, unchanged over the past two weeks.

During the summer, most polls showed Bowles with a double-digit lead. In the fall, Burr's advertising campaign highlighted Bowles' working relationship with former President Bill Clinton.

Our Senate Overview shows that prospects for Republicans to retain control of the U.S. Senate have improved in the past couple of weeks. Still, in addition to the Burr-Bowles match-up, there are close races in South Dakota, Colorado, Oklahoma, Alaska, South Carolina, Florida, and Louisiana.

Democrats are likely to pick up a Republican seat in Illinois. Republicans are likely to pick up a Democratic seat in Georgia.

Rasmussen Reports has recently released state Presidential election polls for Alabama, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Georgia, Indiana, Maryland, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New York, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Tennessee, West Virginia, Washington, Virginia, and Wisconsin.