Arkansas: Kerry 46% Bush 45%

Monday, July 12, 2004

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In Arkansas, the latest Rasmussen Reports survey shows Senator Kerry with 46% of the vote and President Bush with 45%. This moves Arkansas from the Bush column to the Toss-up column in our Electoral College projection.

Last month, it was Bush 48% Kerry 43% in our Arkansas poll. Bush won the state's Electoral Votes four years ago by a five point margin.

Men in Arkansas prefer the President by a five-percentage point margin, 47 - 42, while women prefer Kerry 50 - 43.

In Arkansas, 50% of all voters Approve of the way President Bush is performing his job. That's down a single point from a month ago and near his national Job Approval rating.

Data for Arkansas will be updated again early next month. Our recent state releases included Alabama, Arkansas, California, Florida, Georgia, Illinois, Iowa, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Minnesota, Missouri, New Jersey, New York, North Carolina, Ohio, Oklahoma, Oregon, Pennsylvania, South Carolina, Texas, Virginia, and Washington.

Rasmussen Reports is an electronic publishing firm specializing in the collection, publication, and distribution of public opinion polling information.

The Rasmussen Reports Election Edge™ Premium Service offers the most comprehensive public opinion coverage available anywhere.

Scott Rasmussen, president of Rasmussen Reports, has been an independent pollster for more than a decade.

This data has been compiled from a national telephone survey of 15,000 Likely Voters conducted by Rasmussen Reports from June 1-30, 2004. Each night, 500 interviews with Likely Voters were conducted. National results for the survey during that time frame show that President Bush and Senator Kerry each attracted 45% of the vote. State-by-state samples carry a margin of error that varies from +/- 3 percentage points to +/- 5 percentage points depending upon the state. Data for California, Texas, and New York carries a 3 percentage point margin of error. For Florida, Illinois, Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Michigan, the margin of error is +/- 4 percentage points. For all other states, the margin of error is +/- 5 percentage points. In all cases, the margin of error is expressed with a 95% level of confidence. In some states, oversampling and supplemental interviews were used to obtain an adequate sample size for reporting purposes.

State data from National Survey of 15,000 Likely Voters
June 1-30, 2004

Arkansas 2004 Presidential Ballot
Bush	45%
Kerry	46%
Other	4%
Not Sure	5%
RasmussenReports.com

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