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52% Plan to Vote Against Trump Next Year - For Now

Thursday, September 05, 2019

Just over half of voters say they are likely to vote against President Trump next year, and most of them say Trump, not the Democratic candidate, is the likeliest reason why.

The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone and online survey finds that 42% of Likely U.S. Voters say they are more likely to vote for Trump in the 2020 presidential election. But 52% are more likely to vote against him. Six percent (6%) are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

While 75% of Republicans are likely to vote for Trump, 21% of the voters in his own party say they are more likely to vote against him next year. Trump loses Democrats by an 82% to 13% margin and falls short among voters not affiliated with either major party 48% to 42%.

Among all voters who say they are likely to vote against the incumbent, 58% say their vote is more likely to be a vote against Trump than for some other candidate. Thirty-seven percent (37%) expect their vote to be more about the other candidate.

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The survey of 1,000 Likely Voters was conducted on September 3-4, 2019 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Just after Trump’s election in November 2016, 48% of voters said the results were more a vote against Clinton than a vote for Trump. Thirty-five percent (35%) said Trump’s victory was more of a vote for him. Sixteen percent (16%) were not sure.

Democrats clearly aren’t hanging their vote on whichever of the candidates emerges from their primaries next year. Sixty-one percent (61%) of Democrats who say they are likely to vote against Trump say their vote will probably be more against him than for the other candidate. Sixty-six percent (66%) of GOP voters who think they’ll vote against Trump agree. Unaffiliated voters likely to vote against Trump, on the other hand, are almost evenly divided.

Men are more likely to support Trump in 2020 than women are. The older the voter, the more likely they are to say they’ll vote for the incumbent.

Trump posts a two-point advantage among whites but trails dramatically among blacks and other minority voters. In every case, most of those who say they are likely to oppose the president also say their vote is more likely to be a vote against Trump than for his Democratic opponent.

Among voters who Strongly Disapprove of the job Trump is doing, 59% say they are more likely to vote against Trump next year than for his opponent.

Ninety-two percent (92%) of Likely Republican Voters expect Trump to be their party’s nominee again in 2020.

The gaffes may be piling up on Joe Biden, but the former vice president is still well ahead in the race for next year’s Democratic presidential nomination.

Additional information from this survey and a full demographic breakdown are available to Platinum Members only.

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We conduct public opinion polls on a variety of topics to inform our audience on events in the news and other topics of interest. To ensure editorial control and independence, we pay for the polls ourselves and generate revenue through the sale of subscriptions, sponsorships, and advertising. Nightly polling on politics, business and lifestyle topics provides the content to update the Rasmussen Reports web site many times each day. If it's in the news, it's in our polls. Additionally, the data drives a daily update newsletter and various media outlets across the country.

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