Friday, October 30, 2015
Did Wednesday night’s debate make a difference in the Republican presidential race?
Rasmussen Reports’ latest national telephone survey finds that 31% of Likely Republican Voters think Donald Trump will be the Republican nominee in 2016. Dr. Ben Carson is a distant second at 20%.
Eight percent (8%) of GOP voters see either Senator Marco Rubio or Senator Ted Cruz as the eventual nominee. Seven percent (7%) feel that way about former Florida Governor Jeb Bush, while four percent (4%) think ex-Hewlett-Packard CEO Carly Fiorina will get the party’s nod.
Seven percent (7%) of Republicans think the nominee will be one of the eight other major candidates in the race. Fourteen percent (14%) are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)
Because this survey ran over two nights, only one of which followed the debate, Rasmussen Reports asked voters which of the candidates will get the nomination rather than which one won the third intraparty debate.
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Among all likely voters, it’s a closer race with 26% who say Trump will be the GOP nominee versus 21% who think Carson will win. Ten percent (10%) opt for Rubio, nine percent (9%) for Bush, seven percent (7%) for Cruz and four percent (4%) for Fiorina. Ten percent (10%) believe some other candidate will win the Republican nomination, but 12% are undecided.
The survey of 1,000 Likely U.S. Voters was conducted on October 28-29, 2015 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.
In early August just after the first Republican debate, Rasmussen Reports asked GOP voters which of the 17 candidates then running they would vote for if their state primary were held at that time. Seventeen percent (17%) said Trump, 10% Bush or Rubio, nine percent (9%) Fiorina or Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker, eight percent (8%) Carson and seven percent (7%) Cruz. All the other hopefuls accounted for 20% of the vote, and 11% were undecided. Walker and Texas Governor Rick Perry have since dropped out of the race.
The latest findings show middle-aged voters to be the ones most confident that Trump will be the nominee. Men believe that more than women do.
Among voters not affiliated with either major party, 25% think Trump will be the Republican candidate, but nearly as many (22%) expect Carson to win. Rubio and Bush are in a near tie with 12% and 11% respectively. Cruz and Fiorina each get four percent (4%) support among these voters.
Rasmussen Reports’ latest weekly Trump Change survey finds that 56% of GOP voters still think Trump is likely to be the nominee, with 30% who say it is Very Likely.
Just after the second debate, belief that Carson or Fiorina is likely to end up as the GOP standard-bearer jumped, while Bush, the early favorite, was fading.
The latest GOP presidential debate was a textbook example of the media bias voters have complained about in surveys for years.
Conservative voters are a lot happier with the current slate of GOP presidential hopefuls than moderates and liberals are.
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