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Do Voters Care What Ryan Thinks About Trump?

Wednesday, May 11, 2016

House Speaker Paul Ryan, the most powerful Republican in Congress, says he’s not ready to endorse the GOP’s presumptive presidential nominee Donald Trump. The two are scheduled to meet tomorrow in hopes of working things out, but most voters don’t care much whether they do or not.

Thirty-two percent (32%) of Likely U.S. Voters say it is important to their vote in the upcoming presidential election that Ryan endorses Trump, but that includes only 18% who think it’s Very Important. The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that 62% rate Ryan’s endorsement as unimportant to their vote, with 36% who say it’s Not At All Important. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

Among Republicans, 53% consider Ryan’s endorsing of Trump to be important to their vote, including 32% who say it’s Very Important. Forty-two percent (42%) don’t find the speaker’s endorsement that important, with 18% who say it is Not At All Important to how they will vote.

Nearly half (47%) of GOP voters now believe the Republican Party should be more like Trump than like Ryan. Thirty-two percent (32%) disagree and say the GOP should be more like Ryan. Seventeen percent (17%) opt for neither.

Among all voters, 30% say the Republican Party should be more like Trump, while 39% say it should be more like Ryan. Twenty-seven percent (27%) consider neither a role model for the party.

Ryan is viewed favorably by 59% of Republican voters, but that includes only 27% with a Very Favorable opinion. Seventy-six percent (76%) of GOP voters think Republicans in Congress have lost touch with the party’s base.

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The survey of 1,000 Likely Voters was conducted on May 9-10, 2016 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

In a hypothetical matchup with Hillary Clinton, Trump now earns the support of 73% of Republicans, but that support is expected to grow as the election nears.

Just last month, some top Republicans still viewed Ryan as an alternative nominee to Trump. But Ryan loses to both major Democratic candidates in head-to-head matchups, with roughly a quarter of Republicans looking somewhere else.

Both Democrats and voters not affiliated with either major party tend to believe the GOP should be more like Ryan. But 36% of Democrats and 27% of unaffiliateds prefer neither Ryan nor Trump. Only 17% of Democrats and 26% of unaffiliated voters consider a Ryan endorsement of Trump important to their upcoming vote.

Conservative voters say the Republican Party should be more like Trump. Moderates and liberals see Ryan as the better model for the party, but one-in-three voters in both groups choose neither.

However, the majority of voters in most demographic categories don’t put much weight on a Ryan endorsement when it comes to how they will vote.

Voters who think the GOP should be more like Trump place a lot more importance on the speaker’s endorsement than do voters who prefer Ryan as the party’s role model.

Just 11% of all voters think Congress is doing a good or excellent job.

Voters, including members of their own party, aren’t pleased with the Republicans’ control of both chambers of Congress last year.

Only 20% of Republicans think the GOP-led Congress’ record will help their nominee.

Additional information from this survey and a full demographic breakdown are available to Platinum Members only.

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