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Carly Up, Trump Down

Wednesday, August 12, 2015

The post-debate picture has a new contender in the top 10 of Republican presidential contenders, while the leader of the pack has taken a fall.

New Rasmussen Reports polling finds that Carly Fiorina, stuck in the bottom tier of debaters last Thursday, has now jumped to nine percent (9%) support among Likely Republican Primary Voters. That’s up from one percent (1%) in late July before the debates  and puts the former Hewlett-Packard CEO in a virtual tie with Marco Rubio, Jeb Bush and Scott Walker after her impressive debate performance last week.

At the same time, Donald Trump’s level of support has dropped from 26% before the debate to 17% now. He still leads the 17-person GOP presidential field but not by nearly as much. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

If future debates stick to grouping the top 10 candidates pollwise in one debate and the others in a second debate, Fiorina’s now on the A-list, pushing former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee down to the second tier. Huckabee’s support has fallen from seven percent (7%) just before the debate to three percent (3%) now. But who can say if these numbers and these rankings will hold until the next debate?

(More below)

GOP Primary 1

Rasmussen Reports Managing Editor Fran Coombs and spokesman  Leon Sculti  are available for media comment on these poll results. Call  732-776-9777x205  or send an e-mail to  leon.sculti@rasmussenreports.com  to schedule now.

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The national telephone survey of 651 Likely Republican Primary Voters was conducted by Rasmussen Reports on August 9-10, 2015. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 4 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Fieldwork for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Name recognition is generally the biggest factor in most elections at this early stage, so it’s not surprising that Trump with his major TV exposure and the recent headlines he’s been grabbing has run well ahead. Many of the other candidates are largely unknown to most voters.

But now with the debates giving voters a look at some of the others, it’s not surprising to see the number begin to change. Note, too, that slightly more voters are now unsure about their vote. Seven percent (7%) were undecided in late July. Now after the debates and the resulting news coverage, 11% feel that way.

Rubio and Bush are now in second place with 10% support each, while Fiorina and Walker both earn nine percent (9%) of the likely primary vote.

Rounding out the new top 10 in terms of their level of support among likely primary voters are Dr. Ben Carson at eight percent (8%), Senator Ted Cruz at seven percent (7%) and New Jersey Governor Chris Christie, Ohio Governor John Kasich and Senator Rand Paul, each with four percent (4%) support.

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