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2016? Clinton 43%, Christie 41%

Monday, November 11, 2013

It’s a dead heat.

A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that if the 2016 presidential election were held today, 43% of Likely U.S. Voters would choose Democrat and former secretary of State Hillary Clinton, while 41% would opt for Chris Christie, New Jersey’s Republican governor, instead. Nine percent (9%) like some other choice, and eight percent (8%) are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

Clinton has the support of 77% of Democrats, while 73% of Republicans back Christie. Among voters not affiliated with either major party, it’s Christie 42%, Clinton 33%.

Of course, the election is three years away. Clinton was also the favorite for the Democratic presidential nomination in August 2005, three years before her party’s national convention chose Barack Obama instead. Christie is also coming off a 22-point reelection win a week ago.

In August, 63% of Likely Democratic Voters said they would choose Clinton if the party’s presidential primary were held at that time. Christie narrowly led the pack of potential GOP presidential contenders at that time with 21% support from Likely Republican Voters, but he was also the least favorite candidate.

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The survey of 1,000 Likely Voters was conducted on November 7-8, 2013 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

In mid-September, Christie posted a 39% to 35% lead over Vice President Joe Biden, who also reportedly has his eye on the 2016 Democratic presidential nomination.

Clinton has a sizable lead among women voters, while Christie has a comparable lead among men.

Fifty-two percent (52%) of voters under 40 prefer Clinton. A plurality (48%) of older voters chooses Christie.

The New Jersey governor is expected to run into resistance from conservative voters in his own party. Sixty-five percent (65%) of conservatives prefer Christie in a matchup with Clinton, but 84% of liberals – and 51% of moderates – favor Clinton.

Forty-three percent (43%) of all voters think the circumstances surrounding the murder of Ambassador Christopher Stevens and three other Americans in Benghazi, Libya last year will hurt Clinton’s candidacy. Clinton was secretary of State at the time the incident took place.

However, Clinton was still the most popular member of President Obama’s cabinet just before she stepped down as secretary of State in January. Sixty-one percent (61%) of voters held a favorable opinion of her, including 32% with a Very Favorable one.

Additional information from this survey and a full demographic breakdown are available to Platinum Members only.

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