Senator John McCain has opened a 20-point lead over former Congressman J.D. Hayworth in Arizona’s Republican Senate Primary race.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely GOP Primary Voters in the state shows McCain attracting 54% of the vote, while Hayworth earns 34%.

For Hayworth, this represents another decline in support. In April, he picked up 42% of the vote. That fell to 40% in May, 36% in June and 34% in July.

For McCain, the 54% level of support is his highest yet.

“Some other candidate” picks up seven percent (7%) support, and six percent (6%) are undecided.

Last month, McCain led 47% to 36%.

Arizona Republicans will pick their Senate nominee in an August 24 primary. A member of the U.S. Senate since 1987, McCain was reelected in 2004 with nearly 77% of the vote.

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 The survey of 595 Likely Republican Primary Voters in Arizona was conducted on July 21, 2010 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/-4 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

In earlier releases, it was noted that McCain was potentially vulnerable with his support hovering around the 50% mark. Similarities were noted to the early polling numbers ofr another veteran senator, Arlen Specter of Pennsylvania. Specter, ultimately defeated in the state's Democratic Primary by Joe Sestak, led in just about all early polling but could never get much above the 50% level of support.

However, that comparison no longer works. Sestak closed to essentially even with Specter a month before the primary. In the Arizona match-up, Hayworth is falling further behind in the final month before the primary.

Over the past week, 46% of all media coverage concerning McCain has been positive.  Just 31% of Hayworth’s coverage has been positive.

However, there is little correlation between voter support and media coverage. Incumbent Republican Jan Brewer has a 19-point lead in the governor’s race despite the fact that just 30% of media coverage has been favorable. 

It is worth noting that McCain gets 51% positive coverage from traditional media but just 44% positive coverage from social media.

Hayworth receives just 14% positive coverage from traditional media and 37% positive coverage from social media.
 
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McCain is viewed favorably by 62% of Arizona’s Likely Primary Voters, Hayworth by 41%.

Eighty-three percent (83%) of these Primary Voters disagree with the U.S. Justice Department's decision to challenge Arizona's new immigration law in federal court. But McCain carries the majority of those who both agree and disagree with the decision.

Hayworth has challenged McCain from the right for being out of step with Arizona Republicans, but the incumbent senator leads among conservative GOP Primary Voters by a 50% to 37% margin.

In Arizona during the 2008 presidential campaign, Rasmussen Reports polling showed McCain winning the state 51% to 45%. He defeated Obama 54% to 45%. In the 2006 Arizona governor’s race, Rasmussen polling showed Janet Napolitano defeating Len Munsil 58% to 37%. Napolitano won 63% to 35%. In the 2006 race for U.S. Senate, Rasmussen polling showed Jon Kyl leading Jim Pederson by nine, 51% to 42%. Kyl won by nine, 53% to 44%.

Rasmussen Reports also has recently surveyed the House races in North Dakota and South Dakota and Senate races in Georgia, Alabama, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maryland, Missouri, Nevada, New Hampshire, New York, North Carolina, North Dakota, Florida, Connecticut, Pennsylvania, Oklahoma, Ohio, Oregon, Washington and Wisconsin.

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