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Support for Senate Immigration Bill Falls, 49% Prefer No Bill At All
Wednesday, June 06, 2007
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Public support for the Senate immigration reform bill has slipped a bit over the past week. A Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Monday and Tuesday night found that just 23% of voters now support the bill while 50% are opposed. Last week, 26% supported the Senate bill while 48% were opposed. In the face of public opposition, some supporters of the legislation have argued that the compromise may not be perfect but doing something is better than doing nothing. Voters have a different view--a solid plurality believes it would be better for the country to pass no bill at this time rather than letting the Senate compromise become law. Forty-nine percent (49%) of voters prefer no bill over the Senate bill. Just 32% prefer the legislative compromise over inaction. For those in Congress who believe that passing the Senate bill will get the issue behind them, the data suggests otherwise. If the current bill passes, 69% of voters say that it will “still be necessary to pass another law that focuses on securing the borders and reducing illegal immigration.” The perceived need for further legislation is felt by 78% of Republicans, 63% of Democrats, and 66% of those not affiliated with either major political party. Only 11% of all voters say that additional legislation will not be needed. Voters have consistently viewed immigration reform as meaning improving border security and reducing illegal immigration. Seventy-two percent (72%) of voters believe it is Very Important for “the government to improve its enforcement of the borders and reduce illegal immigration.” Adding pressure to Congress is the fact that voters see this objective as achievable --68% of Americans believe it is possible to reduce illegal immigration. Just 20% disagree. A New York Times/CBS News poll found that 82% believe the federal government could do more to reduce illegal immigration. Only 29% place a similar priority on the other major aspect of the grand bargain—legalizing the status of the millions of illegal aliens already living in the county. One reason for public frustration about the legislation is that this part of the issue seems to be the top priority on Capitol Hill. Still, 65% of voters would be willing to accept a compromise that legalizes the status of illegal aliens. The key to building support for such a compromise is convincing voters that the government is serious about controlling the border. That’s where this particular compromise has failed in the court of public opinion--just 16% believe it will actually reduce illegal immigration. Not surprisingly, this week’s survey also found that 45% of voters would prefer a scaled-back version of the Senate bill that focuses only on border control and reducing immigration. Given that option, 31% would prefer the Senate bill. As the debate has unfolded, Democrats have become modestly less opposed to the legislation while Republicans have trended slightly in the opposite direction. It would be a mistake, however, to see the difference as a typical partisan divide--just 29% of Democrats support the measure while 40% are opposed. Among Republicans, support is at 21% 57% are opposed. Only 17% of those not affiliated with either party support the measure. Fifty-seven percent (57%) of unaffiliateds are opposed. Public opposition to the bill has already had an impact on Election 2008. Senator John McCain, a leading supporter of the bill, fell to fourth place in the latest Rasmussen Reports poll for the Republican Presidential nomination. Voters in McCain’s home state of Arizona are no more enthusiastic about the bill than voters nationwide. Just 47% of Arizona voters now have a favorable opinion of McCain. President George W. Bush, a primary backer of the immigration legislation, saw his Job Approval ratings tumble to record lows in May as the debate heated up. From the beginning, the President and most other Beltway politicians have misunderstood the public debate over immigration. The initial discussions in Washington implied a debate that was either pro-immigration or anti-immigration. Those who favored some form of legalization or earned citizenship were pictured in official Washington as pro-immigrant while those who favored border control were thought to be anti-immigrant, ignorant, and perhaps racist. However, Rasmussen Reports data shows an entirely different picture. Among those who favor enforcement-first policies, 59% also favor a national policy goal that welcomes all immigrants except national security threats, criminals, and those who would come here to live off the U.S. welfare system. Among those who oppose an enforcement first policy, just 50% favor such a welcoming policy goal. In other words, those who favor an enforcement-first policy are more likely than others to ultimately support a welcoming immigration policy. While favoring an immigrant-friendly society, most Americans also favor a society in which the laws are observed by everyone. By a 3-to-1 margin, voters say it doesn’t make sense to consider additional laws until the government first gains control of the borders and enforces existing laws. Earlier surveys on immigration have found support for building a barrier along the Mexican border and positive attitudes towards citizen patrols along the border. Another survey found that most Americans consider current immigration laws a threat to both national security and the economy. Three-fourths of all Americans believe it is too easy for people from other countries to enter the United States. In addition to tracking public response to issues like immigration over time, Rasmussen Reports also provides continuously updated Election 2008 information for all Republican and Democratic candidates. This data includes favorability ratings, ideological perceptions, and general election match-ups. Results for the Generic Congressional Ballot are updated monthly and the President’s Job Approval ratings are updated daily. Rasmussen Reports also regularly tracks public attitudes towards Congress, the War on Terror, and favorability ratings for Members of Congress, Other Political Figures, and Journalists. Crosstabs are available for Premium Members only. Rasmussen Reports is an electronic publishing firm specializing in the collection, publication, and distribution of public opinion polling information. The Rasmussen Reports Election Edge™ Premium Service offers the most comprehensive public opinion coverage available anywhere. Scott Rasmussen, president of Rasmussen Reports, has been an independent pollster for more than a decade.
Survey of 800 Likely Voters
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